Louisiana Tech @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at NC State

Weather at kickoff78°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

1-0 · Power #112

final

Final

NC State

1-1 · Power #67

▲ winner

Closing spread

NCSU -20.5

✓ LT W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 14–34 NCSU

✓ NCSU (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -24.5

CloseNCSU -20.5

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -24.5

4 → LT

CloseNCSU -20.5

4 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open52.5

▼ 5

Close47.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -24.5 · closed NCSU -20.5 · moved 4 toward LTmodel NCSU -15

model NCSU -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -24.5

CloseNCSU -20.5

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like NCSU as a 20.5-point home favorite against LT, the favorite won 2, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 30–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 2 similar games. 50 points went over 47.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 19; 51.5 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	HOU vs RICE 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-17.5	34–27	L	O52.5
Loose	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-20.5	28–14	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT –	0-0	—	—	—
NCSU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT –	0-0	—	1-0
NCSU UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 189 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	5-3 63%
NCSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−10.2 →−10.2–#110

NCSU+5.5 →+0.5▼ 5.0#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#112

Offense

NCSU better ▶

#86

#18

Defense

◀ LT better

#109

−4.0 #136

Turnovers

NCSU better ▶

−0.5 #91

73 plays #27

Pace

◀ LT faster

62 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #94	36.0 #124	LT
Yards / play	5.29 #96	6.52 #120	LT
PPA / play	−0.15 #132	+0.12 #94	NCSU
Success rate	34% #127	43% #98	NCSU

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	NCSU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #97	17.0 #56	LT
Yards / play	5.41 #90	3.17 #7	LT
PPA / play	+0.08 #88	−0.26 #4	LT
Success rate	43% #69	23% #3	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.