NC State @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

NC State

2-1 · Power #67

final

Final

Clemson

1-1 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -17.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 94 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 16–33 CLEM

✓ CLEM (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -16.5

CloseCLEM -17.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -16.5

1 → CLEM

CloseCLEM -17.5

1 pt toward Clemson

Total

Open48.5

▼ 4

Close44.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -16.5 · closed CLEM -17.5 · moved 1 toward CLEMmodel CLEM -15.5

model CLEM -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 52% (54 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -16.5

CloseCLEM -17.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 17.5-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CLEM won 59–35; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 94 points went over 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 17.2; 56.9 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PITT vs VT 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-14.5	45–29	W	O42
Close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Close	CAL vs SDSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-18.5	31–10	W	U48.5
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & team ratings	-16.5	51–10	W	O40.5
Close	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-21	58–7	W	O45.5
Close	MSST vs AUB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	39–33	L	O50.5
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU LLL	0-3	0%	—	0-1
CLEM LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
CLEM UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q2. Of 160 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
CLEM	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NCSU 30–60 CLEM (1 tied) CLEM leads · 91 games since 1902 · CLEM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Clemson 17 @ NC State 24	CLEM -10	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+5.5 →+1.5▼ 4.0#64

CLEM+12.9 →+13.0▲ 0.1#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NCSU

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#88

Offense

CLEM better ▶

#31

#90

Defense

Even

#102

0.0 #70

Turnovers

CLEM better ▶

+0.5 #48

64 plays #84

Pace

Even

63 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #91	27.0 #97	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #101	6.23 #111	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	+0.24 #115	NCSU
Success rate	42% #76	41% #84	Even

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: CLEM offense

	CLEM off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #40	30.7 #108	CLEM
Yards / play	7.20 #23	6.33 #115	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.47 #9	+0.04 #65	CLEM
Success rate	46% #52	39% #71	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 111 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	3.3 #89	4.3 #94	7.7 #103	8.0 #37	10.3 #13	18.3 #25
CLEM allowed	0.0	9.5	9.5	10.5	7.0	17.5

CLEM scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	17.5	10.5	28.0	6.5	0.0	6.5
NCSU allowed	7.0 #83	10.0 #87	17.0 #92	9.0 #99	4.7 #47	13.7 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.