Rutgers @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Virginia Tech

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Rutgers

2-0 · Power #51

▲ winner

Final

Virginia Tech

2-1 · Power #38

final

Closing spread

VT -3.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 23–27 VT

✗ VT (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -4.5

CloseVT -3.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -4.5

1 → RUTG

CloseVT -3.5

1 pt toward Rutgers

Total

Open47.5

▼ 3

Close44.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -4.5 · closed VT -3.5 · moved 1 toward RUTGmodel VT -5.5

model VT -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (121 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -4.5

CloseVT -3.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 3.5-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 26–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 4.6; 42 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-4	24–14	W	U47
Close	TA&M vs MIA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	17–9	W	U45.5
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	IOWA vs ISU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	7–10	L	U39
Close	NU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	20–26	L	O37.5
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-3	14–20	L	U39
Close	AFA vs WYO 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–14	W	U46.5
Close	TULN vs SMU 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	14–26	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG LW	1-1	50%	—	—
VT LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG UO	1-1	50%	2-0
VT OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 165 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	5-5 50%	4-4-1 50%	6-2 75%
VT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

RUTG 1–0 VT RUTG leads · 1 game since 2023 · RUTG has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Virginia Tech 16 @ Rutgers 35	RUTG -6.5	RUTG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+2.4 →+5.3▲ 2.9#45

VT+4.6 →+7.1▲ 2.5#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

RUTG

Longer bar = better

#18

Offense

◀ RUTG better

#78

#33

Defense

◀ RUTG better

#64

+0.5 #47

Turnovers

◀ RUTG better

+0.3 #62

69 plays #42

Pace

VT faster ▶

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: RUTG offense

	RUTG off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #9	21.7 #73	RUTG
Yards / play	7.23 #22	5.26 #71	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.32 #25	+0.07 #74	RUTG
Success rate	54% #14	35% #38	RUTG

When VT has the ball

Advantage: RUTG defense

	VT off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #62	12.0 #27	RUTG
Yards / play	5.63 #92	4.73 #49	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.17 #66	−0.11 #23	RUTG
Success rate	41% #92	34% #34	RUTG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 121 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	7.0	12.0	19.0	14.0	13.5	27.5
VT allowed	1.0 #9	10.3 #99	11.3 #66	3.3 #31	4.7 #52	8.0 #35

VT scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	7.0 #52	2.0 #116	9.0 #100	10.0 #22	12.7 #7	22.7 #6
RUTG allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	3.5	3.5	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.