NCAAF 1st half2024 Week 4: 54 of 54 games final. Favorites went 23-20 against the first-half spread, and halftime totals went 22 over, 22 under.How 1st-half lines work ⓘ
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Thursday, Sep 19

1
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 2-1 · #66
28
1H ATS 0-3 · #99
7
1H spread
—
 
1H total
—
 
Projected
16–18
✗ APP did not lead

Friday, Sep 20

3
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 1-1 · #96
13
1H ATS 1-1 · #43
10
1H spread
SYR -5.5
✓ STAN W ATS
1H total
29.5
▼ Under 23
Projected
10–18
✗ SYR did not lead
Model: SYR by 2 ✗ Model: Under 1 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 2-1 · #44
10
1H ATS 0-0-1 · #41
17
1H spread
NEB -5.5
✓ NEB W ATS
1H total
21.5
▲ Over 27
Projected
10–13
✓ NEB led
Model: ILL by 2 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 2-1 · #86
17
1H ATS 2-0 · #68
24
1H spread
—
 
1H total
—
 
Projected
9–18
✓ WSU led

Saturday, Sep 21

50
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 1-1 · #69
14
1H ATS 1-1 · #1
28
1H spread
OSU -22.5
✓ MRSH W ATS
1H total
29
▲ Over 42
Projected
3–23
✓ OSU led
Model: MRSH by 2 ✓ Model: Under 2.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 0-3 · #67
7
1H ATS 1-0-1 · #17
45
1H spread
CLEM -10.5
✓ CLEM W ATS
1H total
23
▲ Over 52
Projected
8–17
✓ CLEM led
Model: NCSU by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 2.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 0-3 · #21
28
1H ATS 1-2 · #72
14
1H spread
—
 
1H total
—
 
Projected
16–13
✓ FLA led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 0-1 · #119
14
1H ATS 2-1 · #10
31
1H spread
IU -17
Push
1H total
26.5
▲ Over 45
Projected
5–21
✓ IU led
Model: CLT by 1.5 Model: Under 1 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 0-1 · #59
53
1H ATS 1-2 · #64
21
1H spread
UNC -7
✓ JMU W ATS
1H total
25
▲ Over 74
Projected
11–15
✗ UNC did not lead
Model: JMU by 3.5 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 2-0 · #76
0
1H ATS 2-1 · #45
24
1H spread
—
 
1H total
—
 
Projected
11–14
✓ CIN led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 1-2 · #35
7
1H ATS 0-3 · #63
14
1H spread
WVU -1
✓ WVU W ATS
1H total
29.5
▼ Under 21
Projected
15–14
✗ KU did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: KU ✗ Model: KU by 2 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 2-1 · #40
17
1H ATS 1-0 · #71
13
1H spread
TULN -1
✓ TULN W ATS
1H total
28
▲ Over 30
Projected
15–12
✓ TULN led
Model: TULN by 1.5 ✓ Model: Under 1 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Rice
1H ATS 1-2 · #104
0
Army
1H ATS 1-1 · #52
28
1H spread
ARMY -4.5
✓ ARMY W ATS
1H total
22
▲ Over 28
Projected
10–14
✓ ARMY led
Model: RICE by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
Ohio
1H ATS 2-1 · #65
0
1H ATS 2-1 · #50
17
1H spread
UK -12.5
✓ UK W ATS
1H total
21.5
▼ Under 17
Projected
6–16
✓ UK led
Trend: Fast starter edge: OHIO ✗ Model: OHIO by 3 ✗ Model: Over 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 0-1 · #126
17
1H ATS 2-1 · #123
23
1H spread
CMU -3
✓ CMU W ATS
1H total
25.5
▲ Over 40
Projected
12–15
✓ CMU led
Model: CMU by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 1 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 0-1 · #113
0
1H ATS 0-2 · #24
31
1H spread
ISU -11
✓ ISU W ATS
1H total
27.5
▲ Over 31
Projected
8–18
✓ ISU led
Model: ARST by 1.5 ✗ Model: Under 1.5 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 0-1 · #77
27
1H ATS 3-0 · #101
10
1H spread
UVA -2
✓ UVA W ATS
1H total
27.5
▲ Over 37
Projected
13–16
✗ CCU did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: CCU ✗ Model: CCU by 5 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 1-1 · #106
21
1H ATS 0-3 · #127
17
1H spread
USU -4
Push
1H total
28
▲ Over 38
Projected
16–13
✓ USU led
Model: TEM by 1 Model: Over 1 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 0-2 · #132
7
1H ATS 1-2 · #81
21
1H spread
JXST -4
✓ JXST W ATS
1H total
31.5
▼ Under 28
Projected
13–17
✓ JXST led
Trend: Fast starter edge: USM ✗ Model: Under 1 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 0-2-1 · #134
0
1H ATS 1-1 · #6
28
1H spread
—
 
1H total
—
 
Projected
0–28
✓ PSU led
1H finalConf · est. line
USC
1H ATS 2-0 · #16
3
1H ATS 0-1 · #27
14
1H spread
USC -2.5
✓ MICH W ATS
1H total
22.5
▼ Under 17
Projected
12–14
✓ MICH led
Model: MICH by 4 ✓ Model: Over 3.5 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
UCLA
1H ATS 0-2 · #48
17
LSU
1H ATS 0-3 · #12
17
1H spread
—
 
1H total
—
 
Projected
9–21
 
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 1-1 · #73
3
1H ATS 2-1 · #4
14
1H spread
ND -16
✓ M-OH W ATS
1H total
22.5
▼ Under 17
Projected
2–20
✓ ND led
Model: ND by 1.5 ✗ Model: Under 1 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 2-1 · #36
14
1H ATS 1-1 · #14
17
1H spread
LOU -5
✓ GT W ATS
1H total
29
▲ Over 31
Projected
11–19
✓ LOU led
Model: LOU by 3 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 2-1 · #105
3
1H ATS 2-0 · #74
14
1H spread
NIU -7.5
✓ NIU W ATS
1H total
22
▼ Under 17
Projected
6–15
✓ NIU led
Model: NIU by 1.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 2-0 · #32
7
1H ATS 1-2 · #33
0
1H spread
AUB -1.5
✓ ARK W ATS
1H total
28
▼ Under 7
Projected
13–15
✗ AUB did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: ARK ✓ Model: AUB by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 0.5 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 1-1 · #51
16
1H ATS 0-3 · #38
7
1H spread
VT -2
✓ RUTG W ATS
1H total
23
Push 23
Projected
11–14
✗ VT did not lead
Model: VT by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 2.5
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 3-0 · #18
10
1H ATS 0-2 · #46
17
1H spread
TTU -2.5
✓ TTU W ATS
1H total
30
▼ Under 27
Projected
11–17
✓ TTU led
Trend: Fast starter edge: ASU ✗ Model: TTU by 3 ✓ Model: Under 2 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 3-0 · #56
17
Navy
1H ATS 2-0 · #61
28
1H spread
MEM -5
✓ NAVY W ATS
1H total
24
▲ Over 45
Projected
18–8
✗ MEM did not lead
Model: MEM by 4.5 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Utah
1H ATS 2-1 · #49
10
1H ATS 2-1 · #87
3
1H spread
UTAH -0.5
✓ UTAH W ATS
1H total
28
▼ Under 13
Projected
13–12
✓ UTAH led
Trend: Fast starter edge: UTAH ✓ Model: UTAH by 0.5 ✓ Model: Under 2 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
Duke
1H ATS 0-3 · #60
35
1H ATS 0-2 · #129
10
1H spread
DUKE -8.5
✓ DUKE W ATS
1H total
26.5
▲ Over 45
Projected
18–8
✓ DUKE led
Model: DUKE by 2 ✓ Model: Under 1 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 2-1 · #53
13
1H ATS 2-1 · #23
10
1H spread
MIZ -11
✓ VAN W ATS
1H total
27.5
▼ Under 23
Projected
8–21
✗ MIZ did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: VAN ✓ Model: MIZ by 2.5 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
TCU
1H ATS 2-1 · #34
21
SMU
1H ATS 0-2 · #15
41
1H spread
—
 
1H total
—
 
Projected
14–15
✓ SMU led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
UTEP
1H ATS 2-0 · #128
3
1H ATS 0-3 · #100
14
1H spread
CSU -5
✓ CSU W ATS
1H total
25
▼ Under 17
Projected
10–15
✓ CSU led
Trend: Fast starter edge: UTEP ✗ Model: Over 0.5 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 2-0-1 · #92
17
1H ATS 0-3 · #95
7
1H spread
LIB -4.5
✓ ECU W ATS
1H total
28.5
▼ Under 24
Projected
9–17
✗ LIB did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: ECU ✓ Model: LIB by 3 ✗ Model: Under 2 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 1-1 · #9
22
1H ATS 1-0 · #91
15
1H spread
MIA -9
✓ USF W ATS
1H total
33
▲ Over 37
Projected
22–10
✓ MIA led
Model: MIA by 3 ✗ Model: Under 2 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 1-2 · #83
2
1H ATS 0-1-1 · #31
17
1H spread
—
 
1H total
—
 
Projected
6–17
✓ WASH led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 1-2 · #118
0
1H ATS 2-1 · #80
17
1H spread
FAU -0.5
✓ CONN W ATS
1H total
23.5
▼ Under 17
Projected
12–12
 
Model: CONN by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 1-2 · #55
6
1H ATS 0-3 · #85
7
1H spread
FSU -1.5
✓ CAL W ATS
1H total
23
▼ Under 13
Projected
10–15
✓ FSU led
Trend: Fast starter edge: CAL ✓ Model: FSU by 3 ✗ Model: Over 1.5 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 2-1 · #131
10
1H ATS 1-0 · #112
7
1H spread
LT -1
✓ TLSA W ATS
1H total
29
▼ Under 17
Projected
13–16
✗ LT did not lead
Model: LT by 2 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 1-2 · #130
3
1H ATS 1-1 · #93
21
1H spread
SHSU -8.5
✓ SHSU W ATS
1H total
22.5
▲ Over 24
Projected
9–16
✓ SHSU led
Model: NMSU by 1 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 2-1 · #88
14
1H ATS 2-1 · #103
7
1H spread
TOL -1.5
✓ TOL W ATS
1H total
31.5
▼ Under 21
Projected
16–14
✓ TOL led
Trend: Fast starter edge: TOL ✓ Model: TOL by 0.5 ✓ Model: Under 1.5 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 0-2 · #114
17
1H ATS 0-2 · #94
27
1H spread
UNT -4.5
✓ UNT W ATS
1H total
29
▲ Over 44
Projected
13–17
✓ UNT led
Trend: Fast starter edge: WYO ✗ Model: Over 1.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 3-0 · #11
19
1H ATS 2-1 · #28
3
1H spread
TENN -3
✓ TENN W ATS
1H total
29.5
▼ Under 22
Projected
17–13
✓ TENN led
Trend: Fast starter edge: TENN ✓ Model: TENN by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 1 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 2-0 · #75
3
1H ATS 2-1 · #19
13
1H spread
—
 
1H total
—
 
Projected
6–19
✓ TA&M led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 2-1 · #124
7
1H ATS 2-1 · #13
22
1H spread
SC -13.5
✓ SC W ATS
1H total
21
▲ Over 29
Projected
4–21
✓ SC led
Trend: Fast starter edge: AKR ✗ Model: SC by 3.5 ✓ Model: Over 3.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Iowa
1H ATS 1-1 · #30
7
1H ATS 3-0 · #26
14
1H spread
IOWA -1.5
✓ MINN W ATS
1H total
18
▲ Over 21
Projected
9–9
✓ MINN led
Trend: Fast starter edge: MINN ✓ Model: MINN by 2 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 1-2 · #90
7
1H ATS 3-0 · #3
24
1H spread
MISS -21
✓ GASO W ATS
1H total
35.5
▼ Under 31
Projected
6–27
✓ MISS led
Trend: Fast starter edge: GASO ✓ Model: MISS by 0.5 ✗ Model: Under 2 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 2-0 · #115
3
1H ATS 2-1 · #2
28
1H spread
TEX -24.5
✓ TEX W ATS
1H total
28
▲ Over 31
Projected
0–26
✓ TEX led
Model: TEX by 3 ✓ Model: Under 3.5 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 3-0 · #70
13
1H ATS 3-0 · #58
6
1H spread
BC -2.5
✓ MSU W ATS
1H total
23.5
▼ Under 19
Projected
9–14
✗ BC did not lead
Model: BC by 2 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 1-2 · #39
24
1H ATS 1-1 · #25
17
1H spread
COLO -1.5
✓ BAY W ATS
1H total
28.5
▲ Over 41
Projected
13–15
✗ COLO did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: BAY ✓ Model: Under 1 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 2-0 · #84
25
1H ATS 3-0 · #111
10
1H spread
FRES -7
✓ FRES W ATS
1H total
32.5
▲ Over 35
Projected
19–10
✓ FRES led
Model: FRES by 2 ✓ Model: Under 3 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H ATS 0-1-1 · #117
7
1H ATS 1-1 · #98
17
1H spread
ORST -1
✓ ORST W ATS
1H total
25.5
▼ Under 24
Projected
11–17
✓ ORST led
Model: ORST by 5.5 ✓ Model: Over 3 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
1H ATS 1-2 · #20
6
BYU
1H ATS 1-0 · #22
17
1H spread
KSU -4.5
✓ BYU W ATS
1H total
25
▼ Under 23
Projected
15–12
✗ KSU did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: BYU ✓ Model: BYU by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 2 ✗
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StatusMatchup1H spreadMove1H totalModelTrendDetails
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1H ATS: the team's 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line. Away team listed first. Spread edge = the model's 1st-half line minus the 1H spread (Total edge: the model's 1H total minus the 1H total), in points; a lean starts at 2 pts (3 on the total) and is context only. Projections use only games played before that week. Trends use each team's 1st halves earlier this season; dot = backtest status ( proven edge, above break-even but not proven, no edge). est. lines are estimated from the full-game line.
1H ATS leans (backtest)
1117-1157 (49.1%)
No edge 2016–26 · break-even 52.4%
1H O/U leans (backtest)
313-299 (51.1%)
No edge 3+ pt edges
Halftime leader picked
69.7%
7,953 games, walk-forward
This week
23-20 fav 1H ATS
O/U 22-22 · leans 7-12 ATS, 1-3 O/U

2024 team 1st-half records

Against the 1st-half line (real or estimated), halftime over/under and halftime leads
TeamGP1H ATSCover %1H O-ULed-trailed1H PF1H PA1H margin
North Dakota State 1 1-0 100% 1-0 1-0 20.0 17.0 +3.0
Missouri State 1 1-0 100% 0-1 0-0-1 7.0 7.0 +0.0
Old Dominion 12 9-2-1 81.8% 6-6 7-4-1 14.8 12.3 +2.5
Minnesota 13 10-3 76.9% 5-7-1 9-3-1 14.5 8.8 +5.6
Marshall 13 10-3 76.9% 4-9 9-3-1 15.8 9.4 +6.5
Texas 16 12-4 75% 7-9 14-2 19.4 5.8 +13.7
TCU 13 9-3 75% 4-8 9-4 18.7 12.0 +6.7
UTSA 13 9-3 75% 7-5 8-3-2 19.0 13.8 +5.2
Georgia Tech 13 8-3 72.7% 4-8 7-5-1 14.7 10.4 +4.3
Arkansas 13 8-3-1 72.7% 5-7 7-3-3 15.9 10.6 +5.3
Arizona State 14 10-4 71.4% 8-5-1 9-3-2 18.9 10.6 +8.3
Nebraska 13 7-3-1 70% 4-7 8-3-2 14.7 7.8 +6.9
South Carolina 13 9-4 69.2% 7-5-1 8-3-2 15.0 9.7 +5.3
Oregon 14 8-4 66.7% 9-3 11-3 21.4 12.1 +9.2
San José State 13 8-4 66.7% 1-11 5-4-4 14.2 13.2 +1.1
Navy 13 8-4 66.7% 7-6 8-5 16.5 10.2 +6.3
Florida 13 8-4 66.7% 3-9 8-3-2 12.5 10.7 +1.8
Indiana 13 8-4-1 66.7% 7-6 11-2 20.5 8.2 +12.4
UL Monroe 12 8-4 66.7% 6-6 5-5-2 9.3 14.3 -4.9
Akron 12 8-4 66.7% 9-3 4-8 12.4 15.8 -3.3
Rice 12 8-4 66.7% 6-6 5-7 12.1 12.5 -0.4
Ohio 14 9-5 64.3% 6-8 10-4 14.6 8.4 +6.3
Miami (OH) 14 9-5 64.3% 5-9 8-4-2 11.4 8.8 +2.6
Western Kentucky 14 9-5 64.3% 6-8 8-5-1 14.1 12.4 +1.8
BYU 13 7-4 63.6% 5-6 8-4-1 15.8 10.9 +4.8
Hawai'i 12 7-4 63.6% 2-9 5-7 10.6 11.7 -1.1
UAB 12 7-4 63.6% 5-6 6-5-1 15.8 15.8 -0.1
Massachusetts 12 7-4-1 63.6% 5-7 4-6-2 13.0 15.5 -2.5
Northwestern 12 7-4 63.6% 7-4 4-7-1 8.6 12.2 -3.6
San Diego State 12 7-4 63.6% 6-5 3-9 10.8 14.9 -4.2
Notre Dame 16 10-6 62.5% 9-7 11-3-2 18.1 7.4 +10.8
Army 14 8-5-1 61.5% 8-6 12-2 17.0 6.6 +10.4
Boise State 14 8-5 61.5% 4-9 10-1-3 21.2 10.9 +10.3
Rutgers 13 8-5 61.5% 6-5-2 9-4 14.2 11.5 +2.8
Toledo 13 8-5 61.5% 7-6 9-4 15.0 8.6 +6.4
Ole Miss 13 8-5 61.5% 4-8-1 10-2-1 22.6 8.3 +14.3
USC 13 8-5 61.5% 4-9 5-3-5 13.8 10.6 +3.2
Boston College 13 8-5 61.5% 7-6 6-6-1 14.7 12.2 +2.5
Arkansas State 13 6-4-1 60% 5-6 6-6-1 11.8 15.4 -3.5
Mississippi State 12 6-4-1 60% 7-3-1 2-10 12.8 21.5 -8.8
Fresno State 13 7-5 58.3% 6-6 9-4 16.4 10.2 +6.2
Texas Tech 13 7-5 58.3% 7-5 8-4-1 21.7 14.9 +6.8
Kansas 12 7-5 58.3% 7-4-1 5-5-2 17.9 13.6 +4.3
Wisconsin 12 7-5 58.3% 3-9 8-4 11.1 9.3 +1.8
Florida International 12 7-5 58.3% 8-4 6-5-1 14.4 14.0 +0.4
Auburn 12 7-5 58.3% 3-9 5-4-3 13.7 8.3 +5.4
Tulane 14 8-6 57.1% 8-6 10-4 17.3 9.1 +8.1
SMU 14 6-5-1 54.5% 6-6 11-3 20.1 11.2 +8.9
Washington State 13 6-5 54.5% 5-6 10-3 21.2 13.8 +7.5
North Texas 13 6-5-1 54.5% 7-5 5-8 16.9 20.6 -3.7
East Carolina 13 6-5-1 54.5% 6-7 7-5-1 14.5 13.2 +1.3
Wake Forest 12 6-5 54.5% 6-4-1 6-6 14.1 16.7 -2.6
Central Michigan 12 6-5-1 54.5% 7-5 3-9 12.7 16.6 -3.9
Michigan State 12 6-5-1 54.5% 6-6 6-6 12.4 12.1 +0.3
Cincinnati 12 6-5 54.5% 5-6 6-4-2 14.8 13.2 +1.7
Kennesaw State 12 6-5 54.5% 5-6 0-9-3 7.8 15.7 -7.9
Ball State 12 6-5 54.5% 7-4 3-7-2 12.8 18.5 -5.8
Clemson 14 7-6-1 53.8% 7-7 9-4-1 20.4 9.8 +10.6
UNLV 14 7-6 53.8% 7-5-1 9-5 19.1 11.3 +7.9
Buffalo 13 7-6 53.8% 5-8 7-6 12.8 11.6 +1.2
Coastal Carolina 13 7-6 53.8% 8-5 6-7 14.0 16.6 -2.6
Illinois 13 7-6 53.8% 7-6 8-4-1 13.5 10.5 +2.9
Oklahoma 13 7-6 53.8% 5-8 8-5 14.2 11.7 +2.5
Vanderbilt 13 7-6 53.8% 4-9 7-5-1 13.3 10.5 +2.8
Virginia Tech 13 7-6 53.8% 4-7-2 9-4 14.0 9.3 +4.7
Tennessee 13 7-6 53.8% 5-8 7-5-1 19.6 7.0 +12.6
Syracuse 13 7-6 53.8% 9-4 7-5-1 16.7 15.4 +1.3
Georgia Southern 13 7-6 53.8% 6-7 8-5 13.7 13.5 +0.2
Alabama 13 7-6 53.8% 6-7 10-3 18.0 7.4 +10.6
Baylor 13 7-6 53.8% 7-5-1 7-5-1 17.9 16.9 +1.0
Ohio State 16 8-8 50% 8-8 14-1-1 19.8 7.4 +12.4
Jacksonville State 14 7-7 50% 9-5 8-4-2 18.1 16.1 +2.1
Colorado 13 6-6 50% 7-5 6-7 15.4 14.5 +0.8
Western Michigan 13 6-6-1 50% 8-5 5-7-1 15.8 15.8 +0.1
Iowa 13 6-6 50% 5-7 7-6 9.7 8.3 +1.4
Michigan 13 5-5-1 50% 6-5 7-5-1 11.6 10.8 +0.8
LSU 13 6-6 50% 5-7 7-3-3 18.1 13.2 +4.9
New Mexico 12 6-6 50% 7-5 4-7-1 17.5 20.7 -3.2
Florida Atlantic 12 6-6 50% 6-6 6-5-1 14.6 14.0 +0.6
Air Force 12 6-6 50% 5-7 5-7 9.9 11.4 -1.5
Houston 12 5-5 50% 4-6 2-9-1 8.4 13.3 -4.9
Utah State 12 5-5-1 50% 4-7 6-6 14.3 20.0 -5.8
Sacramento State 2 1-1 50% 1-1 1-1 13.5 19.5 -6.0
North Carolina 13 6-7 46.2% 6-6-1 6-6-1 14.0 14.4 -0.4
Colorado State 13 6-7 46.2% 2-11 6-6-1 11.8 10.9 +0.8
Northern Illinois 13 6-7 46.2% 6-7 6-7 13.8 11.7 +2.1
California 13 6-7 46.2% 5-8 7-6 13.2 12.1 +1.1
Kansas State 13 6-7 46.2% 7-6 8-5 14.5 13.5 +1.0
Memphis 13 6-7 46.2% 5-8 10-1-2 19.2 11.1 +8.1
Duke 13 5-6-1 45.5% 5-7-1 7-6 12.6 11.6 +1.0
South Alabama 13 5-6-1 45.5% 6-6 8-5 18.5 13.2 +5.4
South Florida 13 5-6 45.5% 4-7 5-8 14.5 15.6 -1.2
Louisiana Tech 13 5-6-1 45.5% 3-9 7-5-1 11.3 10.5 +0.8
Texas State 13 5-6-1 45.5% 8-4 8-4-1 21.3 13.5 +7.8
UTEP 12 5-6 45.5% 3-8 3-7-2 8.8 16.5 -7.7
Oregon State 12 5-6 45.5% 4-7 7-4-1 11.8 14.3 -2.5
UCLA 12 5-6 45.5% 4-7 4-7-1 9.8 12.5 -2.8
Charlotte 12 4-5-1 44.4% 5-5 2-9-1 10.0 15.9 -5.9
Penn State 16 6-8-1 42.9% 7-8 9-6-1 17.9 9.6 +8.3
Pittsburgh 13 5-7-1 41.7% 7-6 5-6-2 15.6 15.8 -0.2
Sam Houston 13 5-7 41.7% 7-5 6-5-2 12.8 10.2 +2.7
James Madison 13 5-7 41.7% 7-5 7-6 18.5 12.2 +6.3
Utah 12 5-7 41.7% 5-7 6-5-1 13.3 9.6 +3.8
Stanford 12 5-7 41.7% 5-7 4-8 11.1 17.5 -6.4
Kentucky 12 5-7 41.7% 2-10 6-5-1 11.2 10.2 +1.0
New Mexico State 12 5-7 41.7% 6-6 3-8-1 8.8 17.9 -9.1
Louisiana 14 5-8 38.5% 7-6 9-4-1 16.6 13.5 +3.1
Nevada 13 5-8 38.5% 5-8 3-8-2 10.8 15.2 -4.4
West Virginia 13 5-8 38.5% 7-6 6-6-1 16.8 16.5 +0.3
UConn 13 5-8 38.5% 5-6-2 6-7 15.3 12.2 +3.1
Louisville 13 5-8 38.5% 8-5 7-4-2 19.0 12.9 +6.1
Bowling Green 13 4-7-1 36.4% 5-7 9-4 15.5 11.8 +3.7
Southern Miss 12 4-7 36.4% 3-7-1 1-11 9.7 20.1 -10.4
Georgia State 12 4-7 36.4% 5-6 3-7-2 11.4 15.9 -4.5
Texas A&M 13 4-8 33.3% 5-6-1 6-3-4 15.5 9.4 +6.1
UCF 12 4-8 33.3% 7-5 4-8 14.8 15.9 -1.2
Tulsa 12 4-8 33.3% 7-5 3-8-1 10.4 24.9 -14.5
Oklahoma State 12 4-8 33.3% 6-6 3-8-1 11.8 17.3 -5.5
Troy 12 4-8 33.3% 4-7-1 6-6 11.4 14.8 -3.4
Iowa State 14 4-9-1 30.8% 8-6 8-5-1 15.0 13.9 +1.1
Missouri 13 4-9 30.8% 5-7-1 5-6-2 13.2 10.8 +2.3
Washington 13 3-7-1 30% 6-5 6-6-1 12.9 13.8 -0.9
Eastern Michigan 12 3-7-2 30% 5-7 6-6 10.2 13.5 -3.3
Virginia 12 3-7 30% 3-5-2 3-8-1 10.3 15.3 -5.1
Maryland 12 3-8 27.3% 5-4-2 2-10 10.5 16.3 -5.8
Middle Tennessee 12 3-8 27.3% 5-6 2-9-1 8.8 19.5 -10.7
Wyoming 12 3-8 27.3% 6-5 0-10-2 9.9 18.8 -8.8
NC State 13 3-10 23.1% 4-9 3-9-1 10.8 16.0 -5.2
Kent State 12 2-7-2 22.2% 7-4 0-12 6.6 27.2 -20.6
Purdue 12 2-8-2 20% 5-7 1-10-1 4.4 19.7 -15.3
App State 11 2-8 20% 6-4 3-8 14.0 21.3 -7.3
Miami 13 2-9-1 18.2% 9-2-1 9-4 20.7 14.7 +6.0
Temple 12 2-9-1 18.2% 8-4 1-11 9.3 19.7 -10.3
Liberty 12 2-10 16.7% 3-9 5-5-2 13.0 12.1 +0.9
Arizona 12 2-10 16.7% 5-7 3-9 8.6 18.5 -9.9
Florida State 12 1-11 8.3% 3-9 2-9-1 6.8 13.9 -7.1
Georgia 14 1-12-1 7.7% 4-10 6-7-1 12.0 10.4 +1.6

How it works

Halftime scores come from ESPN quarter scores (Q1 + Q2) for every game since 2015.

1st-half lines. ESPN publishes no college 1st-half lines. Real ones come from The Odds API’s US books (DraftKings first) for games kicking off within about five days (the biggest matchups first, a capped number a day), pulled once, so a line shows the time it was fetched; every other game, and every past college game, is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.59, total × 0.52, rounded to the half point: the share of the margin and points college teams score before halftime). A real line shows its book; an estimated one is marked “est.”

Projection. The full-game model's margin and total, scaled the same way. The blend was chosen by the lowest walk-forward error.

Spread edge and Total edge. The model’s 1st-half line (total) minus the market’s, in points. A lean starts when the projection beats the 1H line by 2–6 pts (ATS) or 3+ pts (O/U). Shown for context: neither has a proven edge.

Picks and prices. For a game with a posted 1st-half line, tap Pick on its tile to save a 1H spread or total pick (graded on the halftime score; they show in My picks). The game card’s Market tab lists every book’s 1st-half price.

NCAAF first-half betting FAQ

First-half lines, 1H ATS and halftime totals explained

What is a first-half spread in the NCAAF?

A first-half (1H) spread is a point spread graded on the score at halftime only. A team covers the 1st-half spread when its 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line is positive; the 2nd half and overtime don't count.

How are NCAAF first-half lines set here?

ESPN publishes no college 1st-half lines. Real ones come from The Odds API’s US books (DraftKings first) for games kicking off within about five days (the biggest matchups first, a capped number a day), pulled once, so a line shows the time it was fetched; every other game, and every past college game, is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.59, total × 0.52, rounded to the half point: the share of the margin and points college teams score before halftime).

How is the 1st-half projection made?

The full-game power-rating model's margin and total are scaled to the first half. Every past week is predicted only from games played before it.

Do the 1st-half leans beat the market?

Not so far. Over 2016–26, 1st-half ATS leans went 1117-1157 (49.1%) and over/under leans 313-299 (51.1%), below or near the 52.4% needed to break even at -110 odds, so they are shown as context only.

How often does the model pick the team leading at halftime?

69.7% of 7,953 NCAAF games in the 2016–26 walk-forward backtest.