Tulsa @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Louisiana Tech

Weather at kickoff90°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

1-2 · Power #131

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana Tech

1-1 · Power #112

final

Closing spread

LT -1.5

✓ TLSA W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 27–29 LT

✗ LT (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -1.5

CloseLT -1.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -1.5

no move

CloseLT -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open57.5

▼ 2

Close55.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -1.5 · unchangedmodel LT -5.5

model LT -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 45%, covered 42% (69 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -1.5

CloseLT -1.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 1.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TLSA won 23–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.4 against an average line of 3; 50 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLT vs MTSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	42–39	W	O55.5
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Very close	USM vs ARST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	20–19	L	U53
Very close	ULM vs ARST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	24–34	L	O55.5
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	31–23	W	P54
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Very close	HAW vs NMSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	20–17	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-1
LT –W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
LT –O	1-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%
LT	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TLSA 4–7 LT LT leads · 11 games since 1986 · TLSA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−9.9 →−12.9▼ 3.0#120

LT−10.2 →−10.4▼ 0.2#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TLSA

Longer bar = better

#49

Offense

◀ TLSA better

#115

#112

Defense

LT better ▶

#43

−0.3 #90

Turnovers

◀ TLSA better

−2.5 #136

67 plays #54

Pace

◀ TLSA faster

64 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #58	23.5 #82	TLSA
Yards / play	6.65 #35	4.25 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #44	−0.03 #42	Even
Success rate	44% #60	32% #22	LT

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #105	33.7 #121	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #94	5.85 #96	Even
PPA / play	−0.15 #132	+0.36 #134	Even
Success rate	33% #129	42% #96	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	5.7 #76	13.7 #20	19.3 #44	4.7 #94	8.0 #40	12.7 #70
LT allowed	5.0	3.0	8.0	7.0	8.5	15.5

LT scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.5	11.5	16.0	1.5	5.0	6.5
TLSA allowed	9.3 #112	7.0 #68	16.3 #103	10.3 #121	7.0 #87	17.3 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.