UTEP @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Colorado State

Weather at kickoff71°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

0-3 · Power #128

final

Final

Colorado State

1-2 · Power #100

▲ winner

Closing spread

CSU -8.5

✓ CSU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 20–29 CSU

✓ CSU (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -10

CloseCSU -8.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCSU -10

1.5 → UTEP

CloseCSU -8.5

1.5 pts toward UTEP

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CSU -10 · closed CSU -8.5 · moved 1.5 toward UTEPmodel CSU -8.5 matches the line

model CSU -8.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 45% (54 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 57% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -10

CloseCSU -8.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as an 8.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 5, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CSU won 27–17; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 8.2; 38.1 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Very close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	CMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	17–10	L	U44
Close	CSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	17–13	L	U46
Close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-9.5	12–44	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP –LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
CSU LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; CSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP –UU	0-2	0%	0-3
CSU UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	2-8 20%	6-3 67%	3-6 33%
CSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−11.5 →−15.9▼ 4.4#126

CSU−8.3 →−10.9▼ 2.6#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UTEP

Longer bar = better

CSU

#116

Offense

Even

#113

#114

Defense

Even

#110

−0.7 #102

Turnovers

◀ UTEP better

−1.7 #131

63 plays #90

Pace

Even

64 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	13.7 #130	32.3 #116	Even
Yards / play	5.10 #111	6.28 #113	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #107	+0.17 #96	Even
Success rate	38% #114	45% #113	Even

When CSU has the ball

Even matchup

	CSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #126	31.7 #115	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #114	6.21 #110	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #123	+0.25 #120	Even
Success rate	41% #87	45% #111	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	8.0 #43	1.0 #127	9.0 #106	2.3 #120	2.3 #121	4.7 #127
CSU allowed	4.7 #67	12.7 #121	17.3 #108	9.3 #115	5.7 #71	15.0 #107

CSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	4.3 #93	4.7 #105	9.0 #106	2.3 #120	4.3 #100	6.7 #119
UTEP allowed	6.7 #93	10.0 #103	16.7 #103	7.3 #99	6.7 #81	14.0 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.