Duke @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Middle Tennessee

Weather at kickoff83°F7 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Duke

3-0 · Power #60

▲ winner

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-2 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

DUKE -14.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 32–17 MTSU

✓ DUKE (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -14

CloseDUKE -14.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -14

0.5 → DUKE

CloseDUKE -14.5

0.5 pts toward Duke

Total

Open54.5

▼ 4

Close50.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -14 · closed DUKE -14.5 · moved 0.5 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -17.5

model DUKE -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -14

CloseDUKE -14.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 14.5-point road favorite at MTSU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 45–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 15; 56.8 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS @ UTEP 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16.25	10–27	L	U44.5
Very close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Close	USA @ ULM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	31–41	L	O51
Close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Close	WVU @ KU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	34–28	L	O55.5
Close	APP @ GAST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & rest	-10	45–16	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	0-2
MTSU –LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: DUKE away, as favorite; MTSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
MTSU –UO	1-1	50%	1-2

Went over in Q3. Of 241 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
MTSU	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.0 →+0.8▼ 3.2#65

MTSU−7.5 →−18.1▼ 10.6#131

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

DUKE

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#106

Offense

Even

#95

#20

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#135

0.0 #87

Turnovers

◀ DUKE better

−1.0 #118

73 plays #20

Pace

◀ DUKE faster

62 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #93	42.0 #132	DUKE
Yards / play	5.03 #113	7.75 #134	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.02 #108	+0.44 #136	DUKE
Success rate	39% #110	56% #137	DUKE

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	MTSU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #116	14.7 #40	DUKE
Yards / play	5.99 #76	3.69 #11	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.13 #80	−0.15 #13	DUKE
Success rate	39% #109	31% #16	DUKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.7 #74	5.7 #95	11.3 #94	4.0 #110	6.3 #75	10.3 #95
MTSU allowed	10.3 #122	8.7 #96	19.0 #113	13.7 #129	9.3 #115	23.0 #127

MTSU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	2.3 #116	5.7 #95	8.0 #113	4.7 #92	6.0 #77	10.7 #92
DUKE allowed	1.0 #9	4.7 #33	5.7 #19	4.7 #54	2.0 #14	6.7 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.