Wyoming @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at North Texas

Weather at kickoff93°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Wyoming

0-3 · Power #114

final

Final

North Texas

2-1 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNT -7.5

✓ UNT W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

WYO 25–33 UNT

✓ UNT (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -9.5

CloseUNT -7.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -9.5

2 → WYO

CloseUNT -7.5

2 pts toward Wyoming

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -9.5 · closed UNT -7.5 · moved 2 toward WYOmodel UNT -7.5 matches the line

model UNT -7.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (71 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 42% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -9.5

CloseUNT -7.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 7.5-point home favorite against WYO, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 44–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 7.4; 53.8 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUFF vs OHIO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	27–26	L	U54.5
Close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Close	APP vs ECU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	43–28	W	O48.25
Close	OHIO vs AKR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-10	55–34	W	O59
Close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Loose	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Loose	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Loose	WKU vs MTSU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & spread	-6.5	31–10	W	U60
Loose	EMU vs OHIO 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6	26–34	L	U61.75
Loose	LT vs UNT 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10	24–17	L	U65.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO LL–	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
UNT WL–	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: WYO away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO OU–	1-1	50%	0-3
UNT OU–	1-1	50%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 222 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYO	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
UNT	5-5 50%	6-2-1 75%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WYO−4.9 →−11.1▼ 6.2#110

UNT−6.3 →−7.2▼ 0.9#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

WYO

Longer bar = better

UNT

#136

Offense

UNT better ▶

#58

#110

Defense

Even

#112

−1.3 #126

Turnovers

Even

−1.7 #130

62 plays #106

Pace

UNT faster ▶

72 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WYO has the ball

Advantage: UNT defense

	WYO off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	11.3 #135	41.3 #130	Even
Yards / play	3.27 #137	6.35 #116	UNT
PPA / play	−0.20 #136	+0.22 #113	UNT
Success rate	26% #137	42% #90	UNT

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #34	33.0 #118	UNT
Yards / play	6.48 #40	5.97 #102	UNT
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.19 #101	UNT
Success rate	42% #79	46% #119	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

WYO scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	3.3 #105	2.3 #122	5.7 #126	0.0 #127	5.7 #82	5.7 #126
UNT allowed	10.0 #118	19.3 #129	29.3 #128	5.7 #67	6.3 #80	12.0 #72

UNT scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	9.3 #31	4.7 #106	14.0 #75	14.0 #4	8.0 #40	22.0 #7
WYO allowed	10.3 #122	10.0 #103	20.3 #119	12.7 #127	0.0 #1	12.7 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.