Tennessee @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff92°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

3-0 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma

3-0 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

TENN -5.5

✓ TENN W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 32–26 OU

✓ TENN (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -5.5

CloseTENN -5.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -5.5

no move

CloseTENN -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -5.5 · unchangedmodel TENN -6

model TENN -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 49% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -5.5

CloseTENN -5.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like TENN as a 5.5-point road favorite at OU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 25–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 8 similar games. 40 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 8.

Favorite won

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 5.9; 49.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TENN @ PITT 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	34–27	W	U62.75
Close	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Loose	TEX @ MICH 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–12	W	O42
Loose	SYR @ PUR 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-1	35–20	W	U56.5
Loose	UAB @ LIB 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-6	14–21	L	U50
Loose	OU @ CIN 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-14	20–6	P	U57.5
Loose	CIN @ IU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4	38–24	W	O50
Loose	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	16–31	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN WWW	3-0	100%	—	3-0
OU WLW	2-1	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; OU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN OOO	3-0	100%	3-0
OU UUO	1-2	33%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
OU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+13.9 →+22.8▲ 8.9#5

OU+17.8 →+14.5▼ 3.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TENN

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ TENN better

#96

Defense

◀ TENN better

#22

+0.3 #54

Turnovers

OU better ▶

+2.7 #2

79 plays #1

Pace

◀ TENN faster

67 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	63.7 #1	11.3 #24	TENN
Yards / play	8.09 #6	4.16 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.54 #6	−0.13 #18	Even
Success rate	59% #7	32% #23	Even

When OU has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	OU off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #48	4.3 #3	TENN
Yards / play	4.86 #119	3.07 #2	TENN
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	−0.29 #2	TENN
Success rate	35% #120	30% #11	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	22.7 #1	20.7 #1	43.3 #1	10.0 #21	10.3 #17	20.3 #20
OU allowed	1.0 #10	3.0 #20	4.0 #8	5.3 #65	2.0 #14	7.3 #30

OU scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	10.3 #23	12.7 #30	23.0 #21	2.0 #124	8.7 #37	10.7 #94
TENN allowed	0.0 #1	1.0 #2	1.0 #1	3.3 #33	0.0 #1	3.3 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.