Tulane @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Oklahoma

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Tulane

1-1 · Power #40

final

Final

Oklahoma

2-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -13.5

✓ OU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 18–32 OU

✓ OU (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -14.5

CloseOU -13.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -14.5

1 → TULN

CloseOU -13.5

1 pt toward Tulane

Total

Open51.5

▼ 3

Close48.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -14.5 · closed OU -13.5 · moved 1 toward TULNmodel OU -16.5

model OU -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 45% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -14.5

CloseOU -13.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 13.5-point home favorite against TULN, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 34–19; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.9 against an average line of 13.9; 53.5 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	27–21	L	U50
Close	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Close	WIS vs RUTG 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-13	24–13	L	U44
Close	UGA vs UK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	51–13	W	O47
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	38–20	W	O49
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Close	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0
OU WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: TULN away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UO	1-1	50%	1-1
OU UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 199 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
OU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+1.3 →+2.7▲ 1.4#54

OU+17.8 →+15.0▼ 2.8#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TULN

Longer bar = better

#33

Offense

◀ TULN better

#98

#77

Defense

OU better ▶

#26

0.0 #79

Turnovers

OU better ▶

+3.5 #1

61 plays #108

Pace

OU faster ▶

63 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Even matchup

	TULN off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #35	7.5 #15	Even
Yards / play	7.89 #14	4.15 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #29	−0.24 #7	OU
Success rate	46% #52	35% #51	Even

When OU has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	OU off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #59	17.0 #60	Even
Yards / play	4.98 #111	5.48 #89	TULN
PPA / play	+0.08 #89	0.00 #66	TULN
Success rate	33% #132	42% #93	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	7.0	13.5	20.5	7.0	12.0	19.0
OU allowed	1.5	1.5	3.0	4.5	0.0	4.5

OU scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	12.0	12.0	24.0	1.5	8.0	9.5
TULN allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	5.0	7.0	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.