Texas A&M @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphgusts 11Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas A&M

1-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Florida

1-1 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

TA&M -3.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 27–24 FLA

✓ TA&M (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -3.5

CloseTA&M -3.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -3.5

no move

CloseTA&M -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 4

Close45.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -3.5 · unchangedmodel TA&M -3.5 matches the line

model TA&M -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 40% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -3.5

CloseTA&M -3.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 3.5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 33–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 45.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 4.4; 36.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FRES @ ASU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-3.75	29–0	W	U48
Close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	25–21	W	O41
Close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–27	L	U50
Close	MSU @ IU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–15	W	U48.5
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	CLEM @ ND 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	26–16	W	U48
Close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	26–6	W	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2
FLA LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: TA&M away, as favorite; FLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M UO	1-1	50%	1-1
FLA OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 162 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	4-6 40%	2-7-1 22%	4-5 44%
FLA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+13.5 →+11.4▼ 2.1#21

FLA+8.5 →+5.4▼ 3.1#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TA&M

Longer bar = better

FLA

#62

Offense

Even

#56

#44

Defense

◀ TA&M better

#98

0.0 #78

Turnovers

◀ TA&M better

−0.5 #92

66 plays #76

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

58 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #66	24.0 #84	Even
Yards / play	5.92 #72	5.36 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #85	+0.18 #106	TA&M
Success rate	52% #23	48% #122	TA&M

When FLA has the ball

Even matchup

	FLA off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #69	16.5 #54	Even
Yards / play	7.70 #18	5.16 #75	FLA
PPA / play	+0.09 #87	−0.06 #41	TA&M
Success rate	46% #51	27% #7	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.5	13.5	22.0	3.5	7.0	10.5
FLA allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	10.5	1.5	12.0

FLA scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	5.0	7.0	12.0	7.0	12.0	19.0
TA&M allowed	1.5	1.5	3.0	3.5	10.0	13.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.