Georgia @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia

2-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

1-1 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

UGA -21.5

✓ UK W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 35–13 UK

✓ UGA (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -21.5

CloseUGA -21.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -21.5

no move

CloseUGA -21.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -21.5 · unchangedmodel UGA -19.5

model UGA -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -21.5

CloseUGA -21.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 21.5-point road favorite at UK, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UGA won 13–12; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 44.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 22.7 against an average line of 20.6; 50.3 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Very close	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	52–10	W	O46
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Close	FSU @ PITT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	24–7	L	U50
Close	MICH @ NEB 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-17	45–7	W	O39.5
Close	OSU @ RUTG 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-19	35–16	P	O42.5
Loose	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Loose	MICH @ MD 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-17.5	31–24	L	O50.5
Loose	MIA @ TEM 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-23.5	41–7	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
UK WL	1-1	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: UGA away, as favorite; UK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA UU	0-2	0%	2-0
UK UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UGA 1–0 UK UGA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UGA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Kentucky 13 @ Georgia 51	UGA -15	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+24.2 →+25.7▲ 1.5#1

UK+5.8 →+5.4▼ 0.4#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UGA

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

◀ UGA better

#104

#14

Defense

◀ UGA better

#43

+1.0 #37

Turnovers

◀ UGA better

0.0 #67

61 plays #109

Pace

◀ UGA faster

53 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #31	15.5 #48	Even
Yards / play	7.81 #15	4.73 #58	UGA
PPA / play	+0.43 #14	−0.15 #25	Even
Success rate	51% #28	34% #41	Even

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	UK off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #116	3.0 #5	UGA
Yards / play	4.76 #113	3.22 #10	UGA
PPA / play	−0.02 #115	−0.11 #31	UGA
Success rate	43% #71	27% #9	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.