South Carolina @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

1-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

1-0 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

UK -9.5

✓ SC W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 19–28 UK

✗ UK (74%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -9

CloseUK -9.5

Total45.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUK -9

0.5 → UK

CloseUK -9.5

0.5 pts toward Kentucky

Total

Open45.5

▼ 4

Close41.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UK -9 · closed UK -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward UKmodel UK -7

model UK -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 45% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -9

CloseUK -9.5

Total45.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 9.5-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SC won 31–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 7.7; 51.5 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TCU vs CAL 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	34–32	L	O46.5
Close	ARK vs BYU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.25	31–38	L	O47.75
Close	RUTG vs VT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–16	W	O37.5
Close	MICH vs WASH 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	31–10	W	U47.5
Loose	RUTG vs TEM 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	36–7	W	U43.5
Loose	AFA vs WYO 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & situation	-12.5	34–27	L	O42
Loose	ARMY vs M-OH 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	23–10	W	U48.75
Loose	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Loose	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-6	24–31	L	O44
Loose	DUKE vs NCSU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & situation	-3.5	24–3	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC L	0-1	0%	—	—
UK W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC U	0-1	0%	1-0
UK U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
UK	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SC 1–0 UK SC leads · 1 game since 2023 · SC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Kentucky 14 @ South Carolina 17	SC -2	SC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+5.6 →+4.2▼ 1.4#40

UK+5.8 →+7.8▲ 2.0#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

#109

Offense

UK better ▶

#50

#61

Defense

UK better ▶

#38

+3.0 #10

Turnovers

◀ SC better

+1.0 #30

79 plays #14

Pace

◀ SC faster

42 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: UK defense

	SC off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #101	0.0 #5	UK
Yards / play	3.65 #124	4.23 #51	UK
PPA / play	−0.02 #106	−0.35 #17	UK
Success rate	38% #104	39% #78	UK

When UK has the ball

Even matchup

	UK off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #73	19.0 #77	Even
Yards / play	7.55 #30	4.24 #52	UK
PPA / play	+0.35 #44	−0.05 #62	Even
Success rate	50% #51	34% #52	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.