Southern Miss @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2024)

Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Kentucky

Weather at kickoff75°F6 mphgusts 12Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Southern Miss

0-0 · Power #132

final

Final

Kentucky

0-0 · Power #50

▲ winner

Closing spread

UK -25.5

✓ UK W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 15–40 UK

✓ UK (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -25.5

CloseUK -25.5

Total50 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUK -25.5

no move

CloseUK -25.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50

▼ 0.5

Close49.5

Down 0.5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UK -25.5 · unchangedmodel UK -21

model UK -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–27.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 47% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -25.5

CloseUK -25.5

Total50 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 25.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 31–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 49.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.2 against an average line of 24.7; 59 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD vs CLT 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & situation	-24.5	38–20	L	O50
Very close	CCU vs KU 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread	-27	49–22	P	O52
Very close	UK vs BALL 2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread	-26	44–14	W	O48.75
Very close	AFA vs NEV 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-24	48–20	W	O47
Very close	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Very close	ARK vs GASO 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total	-23	45–10	W	O52.5
Very close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75
Very close	MIA vs MTSU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-25.5	31–45	L	O53.5
Very close	MIZ vs MTSU 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-21	23–19	L	U47.5
Very close	CLEM vs FAU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total	-25	48–14	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found