Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Hawai'i
Closing spread
UCLA -13.5
✓ HAW W
Total
51.5
▼ Under · 29 pts
Model before kickoff
UCLA 31–17 HAW
✓ UCLA (85%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUCLA -13.5
CloseUCLA -13.5
Total55.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCLA -13.5
no move
CloseUCLA -13.5
No change since the open
Total
Open55.5
▼ 4
Close51.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCLA -13.5 · unchangedmodel UCLA -17
model UCLA -17
Opened 55.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 4 downmodel 48
model 48
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUCLA -13.5
CloseUCLA -13.5
Total55.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
UCLA as a 13.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: UCLA won 16–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 82%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 14.8; 55 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close | 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest |
-15 | 28–3 | W | U55.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread |
-13.5 | 38–21 | W | O54.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total |
-17 | 42–7 | W | U52 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-13.5 | 29–20 | L | U52.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total |
-17 | 31–34 | L | O50 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-13.5 | 54–42 | L | O53 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings |
-17 | 45–7 | W | O48.5 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total |
-17 | 23–3 | W | U49 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest |
-11.5 | 21–33 | L | O52 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation |
-13 | 35–34 | L | O50.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 4
55.5 → 51.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
UCLA have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 2-7 22% | |
| 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
86° · 7 mph
gusts 20 mph · 0.004 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
UCLA1st game
HAW7d
Even
Travel
UCLA 2,564 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

