Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Hawai'i
Weather at kickoff86°F7 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›
0-0 · Power #48
16
▲ winner
Final
@
1-0 · Power #109
13
final
Closing spread
UCLA -13.5
✓ HAW W
Total
51.5
▼ Under · 29 pts
Model before kickoff
UCLA 31–17 HAW
✓ UCLA (85%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUCLA -13.5
CloseUCLA -13.5
Total55.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCLA -13.5 · unchangedmodel UCLA -17
Opened 55.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 4 downmodel 48
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUCLA -13.5
CloseUCLA -13.5
Total55.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 13.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 16–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 82%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 14.8; 55 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
BC @ TEM
2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest
-1528–3 W U55.5
Very close
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread
-13.538–21 W O54.5
Very close
2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total
-1742–7 W U52
Very close
BAY @ TXST
2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total
-13.529–20 L U52.5
Very close
MRSH @ BGSU
2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total
-1731–34 L O50
Very close
HOU @ USF
2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-13.554–42 L O53
Close
BAY @ KU
2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings
-1745–7 W O48.5
Close
CIN @ TEM
2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total
-1723–3 W U49
Close
UL @ RICE
2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest
-11.521–33 L O52
Close
BUFF @ ODU
2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation
-1335–34 L O50.5
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Total moved down 4
55.5 → 51.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
UCLA have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
HAW +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
86° · 7 mph
gusts 20 mph · 0.004 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
UCLA1st game
HAW7d
Even
Travel
UCLA 2,564 mi
3 time zones

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week