Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Ohio State
Closing spread
OSU -48.5
✓ AKR W
Total
55.5
▲ Over · 58 pts
Model before kickoff
AKR 0–46 OSU
✓ OSU (100%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenOSU -50.5
CloseOSU -48.5
Total58.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOSU -50.5
2 → AKR
CloseOSU -48.5
2 pts toward Akron
Total
Open58.5
▼ 3
Close55.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OSU -50.5 · closed OSU -48.5 · moved 2 toward AKRmodel OSU -41.5
model OSU -41.5
Opened 58.5 · closed 55.5 · moved 3 downmodel 45
model 45
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenOSU -50.5
CloseOSU -48.5
Total58.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 5 games most like 
OSU as a 48.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: OSU won 52–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 5 similar games. 58 points went over 55.5, as in 3 of 5.
Favorite won
5 of 5100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
4 of 4100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Went over
3 of 475%
Normal range · usually 50%
Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 53.8 against an average line of 45.2; 63.4 points a game (usually 65.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 5 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |
2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & situation |
-42 | 63–0 | W | O55 |
| Loose |  ALA vs  USM2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation |
-45 | 63–14 | W | O57.75 |
| Loose |  MICH vs  CONN2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation |
-47.5 | 59–0 | W | P59 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation |
-42 | 45–3 | P | U52.5 |
| Loose | ALA vs  ULM2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread |
-49.5 | 63–7 | W | O61.5 |
PSU
MASS
UGA
BALLHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Akron ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Akron
2 pts (OSU -50.5 → OSU -48.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 3
58.5 → 55.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Akron have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 172 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 AKR | 1-9 10% | 4-5-1 44% | 4-5 44% |
| OSU | 8-2 80% | 5-3-2 63% | 2-7 22% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
OSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
79° · 6 mph
gusts 21 mph · 0.13 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
AKR1st game
OSU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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FIU @ 
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UTEP @ 
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EMU @ 
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SYR