Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Syracuse
Closing spread
SYR -17.5
✓ OHIO W
Total
45.5
▲ Over · 60 pts
Model before kickoff
OHIO 15–30 SYR
✓ SYR (86%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSYR -15.5
CloseSYR -17.5
Total47.5 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSYR -15.5
2 → SYR
CloseSYR -17.5
2 pts toward Syracuse
Total
Open47.5
▼ 2
Close45.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SYR -15.5 · closed SYR -17.5 · moved 2 toward SYRmodel SYR -4
model SYR -4
Opened 47.5 · closed 45.5 · moved 2 downmodel 45.5 matches the line
model 45.5 = line ✓
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 15.5–19.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 49% (63 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSYR -15.5
CloseSYR -17.5
Total47.5 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
SYR as a 17.5-point home favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: SYR won 38–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 45.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 87%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.8 against an average line of 15.4; 51.2 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & total |
-16 | 36–17 | W | O48 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation |
-13 | 39–21 | W | O49.75 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total |
-16.25 | 42–14 | W | O48.25 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total |
-12.5 | 34–27 | L | O42 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread |
-16.5 | 17–14 | L | U47 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread |
-16 | 23–17 | L | U45.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread |
-17.5 | 41–27 | L | O48 |
| Loose | 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-17 | 38–7 | W | U52.25 |
| Loose | 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread |
-15.5 | 47–7 | W | O53 |
| Loose | 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-14 | 38–6 | W | O42.75 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Syracuse ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Syracuse
2 pts (SYR -15.5 → SYR -17.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
47.5 → 45.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Ohio have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 147 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 3-6 33% | |
| 3-7 30% | 2-7-1 22% | 4-5 44% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
OHIO1st game
SYR1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

