Sat, Aug 24, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Nevada
Closing spread
SMU -27.5
✓ NEV W
Total
55.5
▼ Under · 53 pts
Model before kickoff
SMU 38–11 NEV
✓ SMU (97%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSMU -24.5
CloseSMU -27.5
Total56.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSMU -24.5
3 → SMU
CloseSMU -27.5
3 pts toward SMU
Total
Open56.5
▼ 1
Close55.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SMU -24.5 · closed SMU -27.5 · moved 3 toward SMUmodel SMU -22
model SMU -22
Opened 56.5 · closed 55.5 · moved 1 downmodel 49
model 49
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSMU -24.5
CloseSMU -27.5
Total56.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
SMU as a 27.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: SMU won 29–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 53 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 95%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 54%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 61%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 26.9 against an average line of 25.9; 58.7 points a game (usually 56.7). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-28 | 66–17 | W | O58.75 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total |
-28.5 | 31–24 | L | U58 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings |
-24 | 55–0 | W | O53 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread |
-26 | 56–23 | W | O50 |
| Close |  CIN @  TULN2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread |
-28 | 31–12 | L | U61.5 |
| Close |  KSU @  KU2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total |
-24 | 35–10 | W | U55.75 |
| Close |  UCLA @  COLO2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation |
-22 | 45–17 | W | O57 |
| Close |  HOU @  TEM2021 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings |
-25.5 | 37–8 | W | U52.5 |
| Close | CIN @  USF2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total |
-24 | 45–28 | L | O58.5 |
| Close | CIN @  NAVY2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread |
-28.5 | 27–20 | L | U49.25 |
OU
TLSA
ND
STANHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Nevada ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.
Market moved toward SMU
3 pts (SMU -24.5 → SMU -27.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Nevada at altitude (+1.2 km)
SMU climb about 4,068 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)
Small sample warning
SMU have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
 NEV | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NEV +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
59° · 7 mph
gusts 19 mph · at kickoff
Rest
SMU1st game
NEV1st game
Even
Altitude
SMU +4,068 ft
thin air for the visitors
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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