Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Florida
Closing spread
MIA -2.5
✓ MIA W
Total
54.5
▲ Over · 58 pts
Model before kickoff
MIA 28–27 FLA
✓ MIA (55%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMIA -2.5
CloseMIA -2.5
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -2.5
no move
CloseMIA -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open54.5
no move
Close54.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -2.5 · unchangedmodel FLA -1
model FLA -1
Opened 54.5 · unchangedmodel 55
model 55
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 44% (66 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMIA -2.5
CloseMIA -2.5
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MIA as a 2.5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: MIA won 41–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 57%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 2.7; 54 points a game (usually 53.3). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  BAY @  WVU2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3 | 40–43 | L | O55 |
| Very close |  NCST @  MSST2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & spread |
-1.5 | 10–24 | L | U55.5 |
| Very close |  ASU @  BYU2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 17–27 | L | U50.5 |
| Very close | NCST @ MIA 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 30–31 | L | O54.5 |
| Very close |  PSU @  PUR2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3.5 | 35–31 | W | O53.5 |
| Very close |  CIN @  ND2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2 | 24–13 | W | U50 |
| Very close | MSST @  LSU2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 16–31 | L | U53 |
| Very close | NCST @  BC2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 33–7 | W | U51 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total |
-1 | 35–20 | W | U56.5 |
| Very close |  PITT @  GT2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 52–21 | W | O57.5 |
SYRHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Miami have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 171 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 7-2 78% |
 FLA | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 6-3 67% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
FLA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
90° · 8 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
MIA1st game
FLA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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OHIO @