Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2024)

Fri, Aug 30, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Michigan State

Weather at kickoff81°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

0-0 · Power #118

final

Final

Michigan State

0-0 · Power #70

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSU -12.5

✓ FAU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 19–30 MSU

✓ MSU (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -11.5

CloseMSU -12.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSU -11.5

1 → MSU

CloseMSU -12.5

1 pt toward Michigan State

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSU -11.5 · closed MSU -12.5 · moved 1 toward MSUmodel MSU -6.5

model MSU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 45% (73 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -11.5

CloseMSU -12.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSU as a 12.5-point home favorite against FAU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MSU won 16–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Below normal · usually 81%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 11.3; 48 points a game (usually 55). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs ODU 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13	39–21	W	O49.75
Very close	AFA vs USU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-8.75	39–21	W	O45.5
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	NEB vs NIU 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total	-11.5	35–11	W	O42.75
Very close	AFA vs WYO 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-12.5	34–27	L	O42
Very close	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5
Very close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Very close	TLSA vs NAVY 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-11	17–20	L	U46
Close	VT vs ODU 2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & total	-16	36–17	W	O48
Close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-7.5	14–17	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found