Indiana @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F7 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Indiana

2-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

UCLA

1-0 · Power #48

final

Closing spread

IU -3.5

✓ IU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 24–22 UCLA

✓ IU (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -2.5

CloseIU -3.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -2.5

1 → IU

CloseIU -3.5

1 pt toward Indiana

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -2.5 · closed IU -3.5 · moved 1 toward IUmodel UCLA -4.5

model UCLA -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 40% (69 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -2.5

CloseIU -3.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 3.5-point road favorite at UCLA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 42–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8 against an average line of 4.3; 45.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ IU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	38–24	W	O50
Close	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Loose	UAB @ LIB 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6	14–21	L	U50
Loose	SYR @ PUR 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-1	35–20	W	U56.5
Loose	MINN @ MSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-3	34–7	W	U50
Loose	NCST @ MSST 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-1.5	10–24	L	U55.5
Loose	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Loose	CIN @ ND 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread	-2	24–13	W	U50
Loose	TEX @ MICH 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	31–12	W	O42
Loose	ASU @ BYU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
UCLA L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: IU away, as favorite; UCLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UO	1-1	50%	2-0
UCLA U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 185 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
UCLA	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU−3.2 →+5.1▲ 8.3#40

UCLA+7.7 →+5.3▼ 2.4#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

UCLA

Offense

◀ IU better

#114

Defense

◀ IU better

#35

+2.0 #10

Turnovers

◀ IU better

+1.0 #39

67 plays #64

Pace

◀ IU faster

58 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	54.0 #4	13.0 #37	IU
Yards / play	8.38 #7	3.97 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.53 #7	−0.15 #24	Even
Success rate	60% #9	36% #54	IU

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	UCLA off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #124	5.0 #6	IU
Yards / play	5.91 #73	2.73 #3	IU
PPA / play	−0.08 #124	−0.23 #10	IU
Success rate	30% #133	28% #11	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.