Toledo @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Mississippi State

Weather at kickoff75°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

2-0 · Power #88

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

1-1 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

MSST -10.5

✓ TOL W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 22–31 MSST

✗ MSST (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSST -9

CloseMSST -10.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSST -9

1.5 → MSST

CloseMSST -10.5

1.5 pts toward Mississippi State

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSST -9 · closed MSST -10.5 · moved 1.5 toward MSSTmodel MSST -7

model MSST -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 43% (55 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSST -9

CloseMSST -10.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSST as a 10.5-point home favorite against TOL, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 41–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 8.8; 57.1 points a game (usually 55). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Close	FRES vs UNLV 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-10.5	31–24	L	U56
Close	UAB vs MTSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	41–14	W	O53
Close	CCU vs GAST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-6.5	17–30	L	U62.5
Close	MIA vs DUKE 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	21–45	L	O59
Close	SJSU vs UNLV 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-6.5	40–7	W	U51.5
Close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Close	WAKE vs VAN 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-9.5	36–20	W	U56.5
Close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WL	1-1	50%	—	—
MSST WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: TOL away, as underdog; MSST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OO	2-0	100%	2-0
MSST OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 209 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MSST	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	5-4-1 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−0.4 →−3.7▼ 3.3#83

MSST+1.2 →−0.4▼ 1.6#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

TOL

Longer bar = better

MSST

#53

Offense

Even

#41

#62

Defense

◀ TOL better

#78

+2.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

0.0 #72

57 plays #127

Pace

Even

56 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	43.5 #21	18.5 #63	TOL
Yards / play	6.18 #62	4.64 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #65	+0.09 #88	TOL
Success rate	44% #65	44% #105	TOL

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MSST offense

	MSST off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #34	16.5 #55	MSST
Yards / play	6.63 #42	4.58 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #44	+0.02 #71	MSST
Success rate	47% #45	38% #70	MSST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	14.0	8.5	22.5	10.5	10.5	21.0
MSST allowed	5.0	12.0	17.0	1.5	0.0	1.5

MSST scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	7.0	12.0	19.0	7.0	13.5	20.5
TOL allowed	3.5	8.0	11.5	1.5	3.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.