Florida @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

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Florida

1-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

1-2 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

FLA 30–26 MSST

✓ FLA (63%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA LLL	0-3	0%	—	—
MSST WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	—

Venue/role: FLA away; MSST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
MSST OUO	2-1	67%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-2 78%
MSST	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	5-4-1 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+8.5 →+4.6▼ 3.9#48

MSST+1.2 →−2.6▼ 3.8#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

FLA

Longer bar = better

MSST

#64

Offense

Even

#61

#107

Defense

Even

#96

−1.3 #123

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

−0.3 #94

57 plays #131

Pace

Even

60 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #83	26.0 #92	Even
Yards / play	7.02 #26	5.15 #65	FLA
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.20 #106	Even
Success rate	46% #48	47% #120	FLA

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MSST offense

	MSST off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #59	27.0 #95	MSST
Yards / play	6.30 #56	5.85 #94	MSST
PPA / play	+0.20 #61	+0.25 #121	MSST
Success rate	44% #66	46% #118	MSST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 111 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	3.3 #89	4.7 #86	8.0 #98	9.3 #23	10.0 #19	19.3 #18
MSST allowed	5.7 #74	15.0 #108	20.7 #105	3.3 #29	2.0 #13	5.3 #18

MSST scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	4.7 #71	9.0 #53	13.7 #66	7.0 #47	11.3 #10	18.3 #25
FLA allowed	5.7 #74	9.0 #80	14.7 #78	11.3 #106	1.0 #7	12.3 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.