Georgia Southern @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Ole Miss

Weather at kickoff84°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

2-1 · Power #90

final

Final

Ole Miss

3-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -35.5

✓ MISS W

Total

68.5

▼ Under · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 14–50 MISS

✓ MISS (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -35.5

CloseMISS -35.5

Total65.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -35.5

no move

CloseMISS -35.5

No change since the open

Total

Open65.5

▲ 3

Close68.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -35.5 · unchangedmodel MISS -36

model MISS -36

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 33.5–37.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 51% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -35.5

CloseMISS -35.5

Total65.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like MISS as a 35.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 52–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 3 similar games. 65 points stayed under 68.5, as in 2 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 98%

Favorite covered

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 46.3 against an average line of 37.8; 62.3 points a game (usually 56.1). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE vs HAW 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-38.25	55–10	W	U67.75
Loose	TEX vs CSU 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-35	52–0	W	U62.5
Loose	OSU vs IU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-40	56–14	W	O62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
MISS WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
MISS OUU	1-2	33%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 36% of games with totals 64.5–72.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
MISS	9-1 90%	6-2-2 75%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−6.0 →−9.3▼ 3.3#102

MISS+12.8 →+20.6▲ 7.8#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

GASO

Longer bar = better

MISS

#70

Offense

MISS better ▶

#119

Defense

MISS better ▶

#10

+0.7 #43

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

+1.0 #27

66 plays #69

Pace

MISS faster ▶

78 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	GASO off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #35	3.0 #1	MISS
Yards / play	5.54 #95	3.75 #12	MISS
PPA / play	+0.21 #55	−0.11 #25	MISS
Success rate	41% #96	28% #2	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	56.0 #2	29.0 #105	MISS
Yards / play	8.87 #2	6.92 #130	MISS
PPA / play	+0.64 #1	+0.25 #119	MISS
Success rate	63% #1	47% #121	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	4.7 #86	13.3 #22	18.0 #45	10.3 #17	7.3 #49	17.7 #30
MISS allowed	1.0 #10	2.0 #12	3.0 #4	0.0 #1	0.0 #1	0.0 #1

MISS scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	20.3 #2	15.0 #11	35.3 #2	14.0 #4	6.7 #72	20.7 #18
GASO allowed	9.3 #116	7.0 #67	16.3 #106	6.0 #75	6.7 #80	12.7 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.