UCLA @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at LSU

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UCLA

1-1 · Power #48

final

Final

LSU

2-1 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

UCLA 20–39 LSU

✓ LSU (93%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA LL	0-2	0%	0-1	—
LSU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: UCLA away; LSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA UO	1-1	50%	1-1
LSU UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
LSU	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+7.7 →−0.9▼ 8.6#70

LSU+17.5 →+14.2▼ 3.3#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UCLA

Longer bar = better

LSU

#120

Offense

LSU better ▶

#48

#98

Defense

Even

#111

−0.5 #100

Turnovers

LSU better ▶

+0.3 #65

54 plays #135

Pace

LSU faster ▶

65 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Even matchup

	UCLA off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #129	27.0 #96	LSU
Yards / play	5.38 #99	6.30 #114	Even
PPA / play	−0.07 #124	+0.27 #124	Even
Success rate	33% #128	45% #110	Even

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #50	27.5 #98	LSU
Yards / play	6.26 #58	5.36 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #50	+0.14 #91	LSU
Success rate	49% #33	48% #124	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 121 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	0.0	3.5	3.5	6.5	4.5	11.0
LSU allowed	4.7 #59	11.3 #105	16.0 #88	3.3 #31	7.7 #90	11.0 #61

LSU scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	3.0 #104	13.3 #25	16.3 #55	11.3 #12	5.7 #74	17.0 #32
UCLA allowed	10.5	5.0	15.5	5.0	7.0	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.