Illinois @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Fri, Sep 20, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

3-0 · Power #44

▲ winner

Final

Nebraska

3-0 · Power #41

final

Closing spread

NEB -9.5

✓ ILL W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 17–26 NEB

✗ NEB (73%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -8.5

CloseNEB -9.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -8.5

1 → NEB

CloseNEB -9.5

1 pt toward Nebraska

Total

Open43.5

▼ 2

Close41.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -8.5 · closed NEB -9.5 · moved 1 toward NEBmodel NEB -5.5

model NEB -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 42% (61 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -8.5

CloseNEB -9.5

Total43.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 9.5-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ILL won 31–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 6.9; 49.5 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AFA vs USU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.75	39–21	W	O45.5
Close	TROY vs USA 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	28–10	W	U43.5
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-9	27–10	W	U51
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	OHIO vs M-OH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–30	L	O39
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	24–21	L	U47
Close	AFA vs WYO 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-5.5	24–14	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL WWL	2-1	67%	—	1-0
NEB ––W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL UUU	0-3	0%	3-0
NEB ––U	0-1	0%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 93 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%
NEB	6-4 60%	3-3-1 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ILL 7–14 NEB (1 tied) NEB leads · 22 games since 1892 · ILL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 6 2023	Nebraska 20 @ Illinois 7	ILL -3.5	NEB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL−0.5 →+3.0▲ 3.5#57

NEB+2.3 →+5.6▲ 3.3#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ILL

Longer bar = better

NEB

#59

Offense

NEB better ▶

#40

Defense

Even

#30

+2.7 #4

Turnovers

◀ ILL better

+1.0 #24

63 plays #96

Pace

NEB faster ▶

65 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	ILL off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #55	6.7 #8	NEB
Yards / play	6.04 #74	4.19 #23	NEB
PPA / play	+0.28 #36	−0.03 #44	Even
Success rate	43% #70	36% #43	NEB

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #43	8.7 #15	ILL
Yards / play	6.45 #44	4.60 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #46	−0.07 #32	Even
Success rate	50% #25	39% #69	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 111 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	8.0 #36	11.0 #36	19.0 #35	5.7 #64	8.0 #33	13.7 #51
NEB allowed	3.3 #38	0.0 #1	3.3 #7	1.0 #7	2.3 #23	3.3 #7

NEB scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	9.3 #26	17.0 #5	26.3 #10	4.3 #85	3.3 #91	7.7 #95
ILL allowed	1.0 #8	4.3 #27	5.3 #14	2.3 #18	1.0 #8	3.3 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.