Northwestern @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Washington · Conference game

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Northwestern

2-1 · Power #83

final

Final

Washington

2-1 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

NU 14–32 WASH

✓ WASH (91%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WLL	1-2	33%	—	—
WASH WL–	1-1	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: NU away; WASH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
WASH UU–	0-2	0%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%
WASH	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	3-5-1 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU0.0 →−2.9▼ 2.9#79

WASH+12.9 →+10.7▼ 2.2#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

WASH

#102

Offense

WASH better ▶

#30

#44

Defense

Even

#34

+0.3 #64

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #57

67 plays #57

Pace

◀ NU faster

63 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	NU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #110	12.0 #26	WASH
Yards / play	5.30 #104	4.25 #28	WASH
PPA / play	+0.01 #110	−0.06 #33	WASH
Success rate	42% #83	36% #48	WASH

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #80	13.0 #30	NU
Yards / play	7.55 #15	4.49 #36	WASH
PPA / play	+0.41 #14	−0.01 #47	WASH
Success rate	56% #10	38% #63	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

NU scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.3 #93	4.7 #106	9.0 #107	5.7 #80	4.3 #100	10.0 #98
WASH allowed	4.3 #66	3.3 #25	7.7 #32	3.3 #33	1.0 #8	4.3 #18

WASH scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	2.3 #117	13.7 #20	16.0 #64	9.7 #23	2.3 #122	12.0 #78
NU allowed	3.3 #48	2.3 #15	5.7 #18	1.0 #7	2.0 #13	3.0 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.