Miami (OH) @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff85°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

0-2 · Power #73

final

Final

Notre Dame

2-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -27.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 7–35 ND

✓ ND (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -26.5

CloseND -27.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -26.5

1 → ND

CloseND -27.5

1 pt toward Notre Dame

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -26.5 · closed ND -27.5 · moved 1 toward NDmodel ND -29.5

model ND -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–29.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 54% (54 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -26.5

CloseND -27.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 27.5-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 28–3; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.3 against an average line of 27.4; 40.1 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-31	33–24	L	O45
Close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	IOWA vs CSU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-23.5	24–14	L	U43.75
Close	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Close	WISC vs NU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-25.5	35–7	W	O41.5
Close	AUB vs SJSU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	24–16	L	U48.5
Close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Close	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Close	UK vs AKR 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-25.25	35–3	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
ND WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: M-OH away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UU	0-2	0%	0-2
ND UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
ND	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−4.7 →−6.0▼ 1.3#89

ND+18.9 →+18.7▼ 0.2#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

M-OH

Longer bar = better

#115

Offense

ND better ▶

#59

#79

Defense

ND better ▶

#32

−0.5 #97

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+0.7 #38

61 plays #112

Pace

ND faster ▶

65 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	M-OH off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	11.0 #136	12.0 #25	ND
Yards / play	5.35 #100	4.37 #31	ND
PPA / play	−0.07 #125	−0.13 #20	ND
Success rate	40% #99	37% #52	ND

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #41	20.0 #58	Even
Yards / play	6.26 #57	5.65 #86	ND
PPA / play	+0.25 #47	+0.03 #61	Even
Success rate	41% #89	45% #109	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 121 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	1.5	1.5	3.0	3.5	4.5	8.0
ND allowed	4.3 #57	2.0 #9	6.3 #23	2.3 #20	3.3 #33	5.7 #22

ND scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.0 #41	10.3 #44	18.3 #42	8.0 #41	8.0 #36	16.0 #41
M-OH allowed	3.0	3.5	6.5	7.0	6.5	13.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.