Buffalo @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

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Buffalo

2-1 · Power #105

▲ winner

Final

Northern Illinois

2-0 · Power #74

final

Closing spread

NIU -12.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 14–28 NIU

✗ NIU (82%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -14.5

CloseNIU -12.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -14.5

2 → BUFF

CloseNIU -12.5

2 pts toward Buffalo

Total

Open44.5

▼ 2

Close42.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -14.5 · closed NIU -12.5 · moved 2 toward BUFFmodel NIU -15.5

model NIU -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 46% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 36% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -14.5

CloseNIU -12.5

Total44.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 12.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 23–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 42.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 51%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 14.1 against an average line of 13.3; 57.5 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UNLV vs UNM 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-14	31–20	L	O44.25
Close	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-13	35–33	L	O48
Close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & team ratings	-16	38–21	W	O46
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	49–10	W	O43.5
Close	AFA vs WYO 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	34–27	L	O42
Close	DUKE vs CONN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-17	26–21	L	O46.5
Loose	RUTG vs TEM 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar total	-7.5	36–7	W	U43.5
Loose	USA vs ULM 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	41–34	L	O51
Loose	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-14	44–17	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1
NIU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
NIU OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in OT. Of 113 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	0-9 0%
NIU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.2 →−12.2–#116

NIU−7.8 →−1.2▲ 6.6#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BUFF

Longer bar = better

NIU

#112

Offense

NIU better ▶

#19

#57

Defense

Even

#52

+0.3 #58

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #46

61 plays #111

Pace

NIU faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	BUFF off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #108	14.5 #38	NIU
Yards / play	4.87 #118	4.91 #58	NIU
PPA / play	+0.07 #96	+0.01 #52	NIU
Success rate	34% #126	38% #60	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #38	18.0 #53	Even
Yards / play	8.10 #5	4.38 #32	NIU
PPA / play	+0.35 #19	+0.02 #55	NIU
Success rate	53% #15	41% #89	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 121 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	6.7 #65	2.0 #116	8.7 #106	8.0 #41	4.7 #86	12.7 #63
NIU allowed	5.0	0.0	5.0	6.0	3.5	9.5

NIU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	8.0	15.5	23.5	6.5	5.0	11.5
BUFF allowed	1.0 #9	8.0 #76	9.0 #45	4.3 #48	4.7 #52	9.0 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.