Northern Illinois @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at NC State

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

2-1 · Power #74

final

Final

NC State

2-2 · Power #67

▲ winner

Closing spread

NCSU -7.5

✓ NIU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 21–28 NCSU

✓ NCSU (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -7.5

CloseNCSU -7.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -7.5

no move

CloseNCSU -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -7.5 · unchangedmodel NCSU -5.5

model NCSU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (72 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -7.5

CloseNCSU -7.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 7.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 24–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 6.2; 60.8 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs SYR 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	33–30	L	O50.25
Very close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Very close	MINN vs UL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	35–24	W	O48.5
Very close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	BOIS vs AFA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	27–19	W	O44.75
Close	SC vs TROY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	23–14	W	U43.5
Close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5
Close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	OKST vs KSU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	31–20	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
NCSU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
NCSU UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
NCSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−7.8 →−2.3▲ 5.5#75

NCSU+5.5 →−0.2▼ 5.7#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

NIU

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#53

Offense

◀ NIU better

#83

#32

Defense

◀ NIU better

#115

0.0 #79

Turnovers

◀ NIU better

−0.8 #103

73 plays #14

Pace

◀ NIU faster

65 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #71	37.8 #129	NIU
Yards / play	6.60 #31	6.73 #129	NIU
PPA / play	+0.24 #44	+0.15 #93	NIU
Success rate	44% #67	44% #107	NIU

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	NCSU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #80	17.3 #39	NIU
Yards / play	5.60 #92	4.44 #27	NIU
PPA / play	+0.12 #89	+0.01 #42	NIU
Success rate	43% #72	34% #20	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	7.7 #50	12.7 #28	20.3 #33	4.3 #104	5.3 #93	9.7 #107
NCSU allowed	12.3 #131	11.8 #118	24.0 #131	10.3 #127	3.5 #35	13.8 #94

NCSU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	2.5 #119	5.0 #112	7.5 #121	7.8 #52	13.0 #6	20.8 #15
NIU allowed	3.3 #50	1.0 #3	4.3 #9	6.3 #84	5.7 #70	12.0 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.