Navy @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F13 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Navy

3-0 · Power #61

▲ winner

Final

UAB

1-2 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

NAVY -5.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 29–25 UAB

✓ NAVY (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -2

CloseNAVY -5.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -2

3.5 → NAVY

CloseNAVY -5.5

3.5 pts toward Navy

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -2 · closed NAVY -5.5 · moved 3.5 toward NAVYmodel UAB -1

model UAB -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 50% (58 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -2

CloseNAVY -5.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 5.5-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NAVY won 41–18; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 4.6; 57.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Close	USA @ TXST 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	31–33	L	O52.5
Loose	TOL @ WKU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar total	-2.5	21–26	L	U60.5
Loose	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & total	-4	24–31	L	U59
Loose	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Loose	RICE @ USF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar total	-2.5	29–42	L	O57.5
Loose	HOU @ TULN 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & spread	-6.5	40–22	W	O60
Loose	DUKE @ GT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	20–23	L	U54
Loose	MEM @ UAB 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	45–21	W	O62
Loose	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY LWW	2-1	67%	—	1-1
UAB WL–	1-1	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: NAVY away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OOO	3-0	100%	3-0
UAB UU–	0-2	0%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 228 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	6-4 60%	5-3-1 63%	5-4 56%
UAB	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NAVY 3–1 UAB NAVY leads · 4 games since 2023 · UAB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	UAB 6 @ Navy 31	UAB -2.5	NAVY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−17.5 →−5.7▲ 11.8#91

UAB−6.4 →−8.0▼ 1.6#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

NAVY

Longer bar = better

UAB

Offense

◀ NAVY better

#86

#73

Defense

Even

#70

+1.3 #9

Turnovers

◀ NAVY better

−1.3 #129

62 plays #106

Pace

UAB faster ▶

73 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	47.7 #10	24.0 #76	NAVY
Yards / play	7.63 #10	4.74 #37	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.53 #5	+0.07 #66	NAVY
Success rate	55% #7	43% #101	NAVY

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #98	25.3 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.16 #110	5.71 #89	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.10 #93	+0.07 #67	NAVY
Success rate	47% #42	39% #58	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.3 #51	19.0 #1	26.3 #11	9.7 #16	11.7 #14	21.3 #12
UAB allowed	3.0 #40	9.0 #102	12.0 #77	5.3 #67	6.7 #79	12.0 #73

UAB scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	9.0 #35	9.0 #64	18.0 #45	1.0 #130	5.7 #89	6.7 #127
NAVY allowed	7.0 #100	2.0 #12	9.0 #45	6.7 #87	9.7 #122	16.3 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.