Navy @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Air Force

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Navy

4-0 · Power #61

▲ winner

Final

Air Force

1-3 · Power #108

final

Closing spread

NAVY -9.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 25–17 AFA

✓ NAVY (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -9.5

CloseNAVY -9.5

Total36.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -9.5

no move

CloseNAVY -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open36.5

▲ 1

Close37.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -9.5 · unchangedmodel NAVY -3

model NAVY -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 61% (65 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -9.5

CloseNAVY -9.5

Total36.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 9.5-point road favorite at AFA, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 34–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points went over 37.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 8.6; 48 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	VAN @ GAST 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	32–36	L	O45.5
Close	JXST @ SHSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	35–28	W	O36
Close	SDSU @ SJSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.75	19–13	L	U41
Close	AFA @ NAVY 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	17–6	P	U34
Loose	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Loose	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Loose	ARMY @ TEM 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-11	42–14	W	O47
Loose	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Loose	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	19–24	L	P43
Loose	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY LWWW	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1
AFA LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: NAVY away, as favorite; AFA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OOOO	4-0	100%	4-0
AFA UUUO	1-3	25%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 48 earlier overs in games with totals 33.5–41.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	6-4 60%	5-3-1 63%	6-3 67%
AFA	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NAVY 0–1 AFA AFA leads · 1 game since 2023 · AFA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Air Force 17 @ Navy 6	AFA -11	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−17.5 →−3.5▲ 14.0#81

AFA−9.1 →−13.2▼ 4.1#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

NAVY

Longer bar = better

AFA

Offense

◀ NAVY better

#134

#77

Defense

AFA better ▶

#54

+1.5 #7

Turnovers

◀ NAVY better

+0.5 #50

60 plays #125

Pace

AFA faster ▶

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #9	21.3 #49	NAVY
Yards / play	7.83 #5	5.49 #75	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.55 #2	+0.02 #40	NAVY
Success rate	57% #4	38% #52	NAVY

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	AFA off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	12.5 #136	23.5 #68	NAVY
Yards / play	3.77 #136	5.77 #93	NAVY
PPA / play	−0.13 #135	+0.09 #74	NAVY
Success rate	34% #128	40% #71	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.3 #51	17.8 #1	25.0 #10	9.8 #18	11.3 #11	21.0 #13
AFA allowed	6.0 #87	0.8 #2	6.8 #14	7.8 #109	6.8 #81	14.5 #100

AFA scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	3.5 #108	5.8 #105	9.3 #113	0.0 #134	3.3 #126	3.3 #134
NAVY allowed	5.3 #75	2.3 #8	7.5 #20	6.8 #89	9.3 #118	16.0 #115

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.