Charlotte @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Charlotte

3-3 · Power #119

final

Final

Navy

5-0 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -16.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 19–34 NAVY

✓ NAVY (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -18

CloseNAVY -16.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -18

1.5 → CLT

CloseNAVY -16.5

1.5 pts toward Charlotte

Total

Open56.5

▲ 1

Close57.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -18 · closed NAVY -16.5 · moved 1.5 toward CLTmodel NAVY -12.5

model NAVY -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 42% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -18

CloseNAVY -16.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 16.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 51–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 57.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.1 against an average line of 15.1; 57.9 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Close	HOU vs ECU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	31–24	L	U56.5
Close	LIB vs FIU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-15.5	31–24	L	U55.5
Close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Loose	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Loose	USA vs ULM 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-17	41–34	L	O51
Loose	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & situation	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Loose	UTSA vs MTSU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar total	-11.5	27–13	W	U59.5
Loose	USA vs LT 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-13	38–14	W	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT W–LWW	3-1	75%	2-1	3-1
NAVY LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT O–OUO	3-1	75%	3-3
NAVY OOOOO	5-0	100%	5-0

Went over in Q3. Of 248 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	4-6 40%	5-3 63%	6-2 75%
NAVY	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLT 0–2 NAVY NAVY leads · 2 games since 2023 · NAVY has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Navy 14 @ Charlotte 0	NAVY -3.5	NAVY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−9.5 →−10.5▼ 1.0#109

NAVY−17.5 →−1.4▲ 16.1#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CLT

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#106

Offense

NAVY better ▶

#116

Defense

NAVY better ▶

#54

0.0 #77

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+1.4 #7

65 plays #89

Pace

◀ CLT faster

60 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	CLT off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #103	20.2 #36	NAVY
Yards / play	5.43 #99	5.61 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.04 #42	NAVY
Success rate	37% #124	40% #57	NAVY

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	43.6 #5	31.7 #112	NAVY
Yards / play	7.71 #3	6.56 #126	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.53 #1	+0.22 #119	NAVY
Success rate	55% #3	44% #105	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	2.8 #124	7.3 #89	10.2 #108	4.5 #99	9.3 #23	13.8 #66
NAVY allowed	4.2 #51	3.2 #12	7.4 #15	5.4 #67	7.4 #95	12.8 #77

NAVY scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	8.6 #22	15.6 #2	24.2 #10	9.0 #20	10.4 #13	19.4 #10
CLT allowed	5.5 #78	10.8 #120	16.3 #107	6.8 #93	8.5 #111	15.3 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.