Notre Dame vs Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff63°F13 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Notre Dame

6-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Navy

6-0 · Power #61

final

Closing spread

ND -14.5

✓ ND W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 31–16 NAVY

✓ ND (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -13.5

CloseND -14.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -13.5

1 → ND

CloseND -14.5

1 pt toward Notre Dame

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -13.5 · closed ND -14.5 · moved 1 toward NDmodel ND -20

model ND -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (70 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -13.5

CloseND -14.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like ND as a 14.5-point neutral-site favorite against NAVY, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 51–14; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 65 points went over 50.5, as in 0 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 15.5; 30.5 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M vs COLO 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-17	10–7	L	U50
Loose	ND vs GT 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-14	31–13	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ND WLWWW	5-2	71%	1-0	4-2
NAVY WWWWW	5-1	83%	—	1-0

Venue/role: ND neutral, as favorite; NAVY neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND OUOOU	3-4	43%	6-1
NAVY OOOOO	6-0	100%	6-0

Went over in Q3. Of 303 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
NAVY	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ND 1–0 NAVY ND leads · 1 game since 2023 · ND has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 26 2023	Navy 3 @ Notre Dame 42	ND -20	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+18.9 →+19.0▲ 0.1#9

NAVY−17.5 →+0.7▲ 18.2#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#43

Offense

NAVY better ▶

Defense

◀ ND better

#43

+0.6 #30

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+2.0 #2

64 plays #94

Pace

◀ ND faster

60 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #26	19.7 #30	Even
Yards / play	6.23 #44	5.51 #72	ND
PPA / play	+0.20 #44	−0.04 #9	NAVY
Success rate	44% #59	40% #59	Even

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	44.8 #4	11.9 #5	Even
Yards / play	7.32 #7	4.36 #6	Even
PPA / play	+0.50 #3	−0.18 #1	Even
Success rate	55% #3	36% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ND scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	7.4 #35	10.9 #29	18.3 #31	8.4 #24	7.9 #48	16.3 #30
NAVY allowed	3.5 #39	4.3 #17	7.8 #16	5.7 #70	6.2 #70	11.8 #64

NAVY scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	11.2 #8	15.3 #2	26.5 #2	9.7 #17	8.7 #33	18.3 #11
ND allowed	4.9 #63	2.3 #3	7.1 #9	1.0 #4	3.7 #14	4.7 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.