Tulane @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Tulane

5-2 · Power #40

▲ winner

Final

North Texas

5-2 · Power #94

final

Closing spread

TULN -7.5

✓ TULN W

Total

69.5

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 37–29 UNT

✓ TULN (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -9.5

CloseTULN -7.5

Total65.5 → 69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -9.5

2 → UNT

CloseTULN -7.5

2 pts toward North Texas

Total

Open65.5

▲ 4

Close69.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -9.5 · closed TULN -7.5 · moved 2 toward UNTmodel TULN -9

model TULN -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 52% (76 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -9.5

CloseTULN -7.5

Total65.5 → 69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 7.5-point road favorite at UNT, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 45–37; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 69.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 7.7; 64.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM @ UNT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	45–42	L	O69.5
Close	BSU @ USU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	27–3	W	U69.5
Close	WKU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	35–17	W	U67.5
Close	TCU @ KU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	38–31	P	U70.25
Close	BYU @ USU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	34–20	W	U65.75
Close	UTSA @ UNT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	37–29	W	U71
Close	APP @ GASO 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	48–51	L	O66
Loose	USC @ ORST 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-5.5	17–14	L	U70.25
Loose	UNC @ DUKE 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	38–35	L	O70
Loose	UCLA @ ASU 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-11	50–36	W	O67

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN LWWWL	5-2	71%	2-1	4-1
UNT –WWLW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-0

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; UNT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN OOUOU	4-3	57%	5-2
UNT –OOOO	5-1	83%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 22 earlier overs in games with totals 65.5–73.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UNT	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TULN 1–0 UNT TULN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TULN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	North Texas 28 @ Tulane 35	TULN -20	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+1.3 →+7.7▲ 6.4#29

UNT−6.3 →−3.1▲ 3.2#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TULN

Longer bar = better

UNT

#36

Offense

Even

#31

#32

Defense

◀ TULN better

#105

+1.6 #5

Turnovers

◀ TULN better

−0.6 #104

66 plays #79

Pace

UNT faster ▶

74 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	39.9 #13	35.7 #124	TULN
Yards / play	6.38 #37	6.02 #104	TULN
PPA / play	+0.25 #21	+0.19 #113	TULN
Success rate	43% #73	42% #79	Even

When UNT has the ball

Even matchup

	UNT off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	41.3 #9	20.1 #34	UNT
Yards / play	7.11 #9	5.16 #47	UNT
PPA / play	+0.23 #31	−0.06 #8	TULN
Success rate	43% #75	38% #37	TULN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	7.3 #43	13.0 #7	20.3 #17	8.9 #21	10.7 #8	19.6 #7
UNT allowed	7.7 #117	15.6 #133	23.3 #131	4.4 #39	8.0 #103	12.4 #79

UNT scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	10.0 #13	9.1 #56	19.1 #25	13.4 #2	8.7 #31	22.1 #3
TULN allowed	3.3 #25	5.9 #39	9.1 #28	4.6 #45	6.4 #76	11.0 #48

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.