Arkansas @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

4-3 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

1-6 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

ARK -7.5

✓ ARK W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 32–25 MSST

✓ ARK (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -7

CloseARK -7.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARK -7

0.5 → ARK

CloseARK -7.5

0.5 pts toward Arkansas

Total

Open57.5

▼ 3

Close54.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARK -7 · closed ARK -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward ARKmodel ARK -6.5

model ARK -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 53% (77 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -7

CloseARK -7.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 7.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ARK won 58–25; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 7.9; 59 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Very close	WVU @ BAY 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.5	34–31	L	O54
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	ARIZ @ COLO 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8	34–31	L	O55.5
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	30–16	W	U53
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & total	-9	31–3	W	U52
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Very close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75
Very close	VT @ STAN 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	31–7	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK –WWWL	5-1	83%	2-0	1-0
MSST L–WWW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: ARK away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK –UUUU	2-4	33%	4-3
MSST O–UOO	4-2	67%	1-6

Went over in Q3. Of 276 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
MSST	2-8 20%	5-3-1 63%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARK 19–16 MSST (1 tied) ARK leads · 36 games since 1916 · MSST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Mississippi State 7 @ Arkansas 3	ARK -7	MSST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+3.1 →+7.2▲ 4.1#32

MSST+1.2 →−1.0▼ 2.2#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ARK

Longer bar = better

MSST

#52

Offense

◀ ARK better

#84

#51

Defense

◀ ARK better

#126

−0.7 #112

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

+0.3 #57

72 plays #18

Pace

◀ ARK faster

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #61	33.3 #119	ARK
Yards / play	6.30 #40	6.41 #122	ARK
PPA / play	+0.14 #68	+0.28 #128	ARK
Success rate	46% #39	52% #136	ARK

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: ARK defense

	MSST off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #76	21.3 #41	ARK
Yards / play	5.50 #93	5.22 #52	ARK
PPA / play	+0.15 #63	+0.05 #42	ARK
Success rate	39% #103	41% #69	ARK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	8.9 #19	8.4 #70	17.3 #35	4.4 #98	8.0 #43	12.4 #81
MSST allowed	6.9 #106	14.9 #131	21.7 #130	5.9 #72	5.7 #54	11.6 #59

MSST scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	4.4 #98	8.1 #76	12.6 #93	6.0 #70	8.9 #29	14.9 #45
ARK allowed	3.9 #40	4.3 #14	8.1 #18	5.0 #54	7.0 #82	12.0 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.