LSU @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

LSU

6-1 · Power #12

final

Final

Texas A&M

6-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -1.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 28–29 TA&M

✓ TA&M (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -2.5

CloseTA&M -1.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -2.5

1 → LSU

CloseTA&M -1.5

1 pt toward LSU

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -2.5 · closed TA&M -1.5 · moved 1 toward LSUmodel LSU -0.5

model LSU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 45% (100 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (77 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -2.5

CloseTA&M -1.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 1.5-point home favorite against LSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 38–23; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 2.7; 56.1 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	CLEM vs WAKE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	48–27	W	O57
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	OU vs ISU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–21	W	U59
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–38	L	O54.5
Very close	UK vs LSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	42–21	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU L–WWW	3-3	50%	1-1	1-0
TA&M W–LWL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-4

Venue/role: LSU away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU O–UUU	2-4	33%	6-1
TA&M O–UOO	4-2	67%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 281 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	9-1 90%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
TA&M	7-3 70%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LSU 37–24 TA&M (3 tied) LSU leads · 64 games since 1906 · LSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Texas A&M 30 @ LSU 42	LSU -13	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+17.5 →+16.7▼ 0.8#11

TA&M+13.5 →+13.8▲ 0.3#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

LSU

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#25

Offense

◀ LSU better

#44

#69

Defense

TA&M better ▶

#26

+0.6 #39

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #27

69 plays #43

Pace

◀ LSU faster

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Even matchup

	LSU off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #31	17.7 #20	Even
Yards / play	6.53 #28	5.10 #41	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #25	+0.03 #33	Even
Success rate	48% #17	35% #10	Even

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #47	20.6 #37	Even
Yards / play	6.23 #45	5.76 #89	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.20 #39	+0.14 #93	TA&M
Success rate	45% #46	40% #57	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	6.7 #58	11.9 #18	18.6 #30	7.4 #42	7.3 #66	14.7 #49
TA&M allowed	3.4 #30	2.3 #3	5.7 #3	6.0 #72	6.0 #60	12.0 #66

TA&M scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.3 #27	11.1 #24	19.4 #22	6.7 #63	5.3 #107	12.0 #91
LSU allowed	3.4 #30	9.7 #107	13.1 #79	3.3 #14	3.7 #14	7.0 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.