Missouri @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

6-1 · Power #23

final

Final

Alabama

5-2 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -16.5

✓ ALA W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 20–36 ALA

✓ ALA (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -14

CloseALA -16.5

Total56.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -14

2.5 → ALA

CloseALA -16.5

2.5 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open56.5

▼ 5

Close51.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -14 · closed ALA -16.5 · moved 2.5 toward ALAmodel ALA -15

model ALA -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 42% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (73 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -14

CloseALA -16.5

Total56.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 16.5-point home favorite against MIZ, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 34–0; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 16.3; 50.2 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	OU vs WVU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	16–13	L	U56.5
Close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	27–21	L	U50
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Loose	LSU vs ARK 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-17.5	34–31	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-1	0-1
ALA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: MIZ away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ UOOUU	2-5	29%	6-1
ALA OOOOU	5-2	71%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ALA	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+14.2 →+9.9▼ 4.3#23

ALA+20.2 →+21.1▲ 0.9#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MIZ

Longer bar = better

ALA

#51

Offense

ALA better ▶

#27

#18

Defense

Even

#27

+0.6 #32

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #36

73 plays #15

Pace

◀ MIZ faster

62 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	MIZ off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #43	21.3 #42	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #74	4.79 #17	ALA
PPA / play	+0.20 #43	0.00 #24	Even
Success rate	45% #45	37% #23	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	38.1 #19	15.6 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.80 #17	4.86 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #29	+0.01 #30	Even
Success rate	45% #44	35% #13	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	8.3 #25	7.9 #81	16.1 #46	9.3 #21	4.9 #116	14.1 #59
ALA allowed	2.7 #13	4.6 #19	7.3 #10	7.1 #102	6.9 #83	14.0 #96

ALA scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	10.0 #12	10.3 #34	20.3 #18	6.9 #58	11.0 #6	17.9 #19
MIZ allowed	3.4 #30	4.7 #22	8.1 #18	4.4 #39	2.0 #1	6.4 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.