Auburn @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

2-4 · Power #33

final

Final

Missouri

5-1 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -4.5

✓ AUB W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 23–28 MIZ

✓ MIZ (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -7

CloseMIZ -4.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -7

2.5 → AUB

CloseMIZ -4.5

2.5 pts toward Auburn

Total

Open51.5

▼ 2

Close49.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -7 · closed MIZ -4.5 · moved 2.5 toward AUBmodel MIZ -7.5

model MIZ -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (94 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -7

CloseMIZ -4.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 4.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 21–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 3.6; 51.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Very close	AFA vs BOIS 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.25	14–19	L	U46.5
Very close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Very close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7	22–26	L	O45.5
Close	UK vs LSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-2	42–21	W	O50.5
Close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Close	MINN vs MD 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	34–16	W	U53
Close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Close	ARK vs MSST 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-4	31–28	L	O53.5
Close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-2	21–38	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-0	1-0
MIZ WLLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UOUOU	3-3	50%	2-4
MIZ UUOOU	2-4	33%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MIZ	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+7.1 →+6.4▼ 0.7#38

MIZ+14.2 →+10.8▼ 3.4#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

AUB

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#47

Offense

Even

#38

#46

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#24

−1.8 #136

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

+0.8 #25

61 plays #124

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

72 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	AUB off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #61	15.3 #12	MIZ
Yards / play	7.35 #9	4.94 #26	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #82	+0.05 #47	MIZ
Success rate	47% #34	35% #11	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #37	20.8 #42	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #63	4.99 #31	AUB
PPA / play	+0.26 #24	+0.09 #66	MIZ
Success rate	48% #27	39% #45	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	8.7 #22	6.8 #96	15.5 #54	7.0 #57	7.5 #54	14.5 #50
MIZ allowed	4.0 #42	5.0 #29	9.0 #30	2.8 #15	2.3 #3	5.2 #7

MIZ scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	9.2 #20	9.2 #54	18.3 #34	10.3 #7	3.2 #131	13.5 #66
AUB allowed	5.2 #71	4.5 #22	9.7 #39	2.8 #15	8.3 #110	11.2 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.