Auburn @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

2-5 · Power #33

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

3-4 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

UK -1.5

✓ AUB W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 20–22 UK

✗ UK (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -2.5

CloseUK -1.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUK -2.5

1 → AUB

CloseUK -1.5

1 pt toward Auburn

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UK -2.5 · closed UK -1.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel UK -4

model UK -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (101 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (79 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -2.5

CloseUK -1.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 1.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 24–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 2.7; 44.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	ISU vs TTU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	10–14	L	U47.5
Very close	AUB vs TA&M 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	13–10	W	U48.5
Very close	IOWA vs PUR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–14	W	U38.5
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	RUTG vs WIS 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.25	7–42	L	O43.5
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Very close	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	27–22	W	O37

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-0	2-0
UK WWWLL	4-3	57%	3-2	2-3

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB OUOUU	3-4	43%	2-5
UK UOUUO	2-5	29%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UK	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+7.1 →+6.1▼ 1.0#38

UK+5.8 →+6.6▲ 0.8#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

AUB

Longer bar = better

#58

Offense

◀ AUB better

#102

#38

Defense

◀ AUB better

#56

−1.4 #133

Turnovers

UK better ▶

−0.1 #81

61 plays #122

Pace

UK faster ▶

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #72	19.3 #27	UK
Yards / play	6.92 #14	5.59 #80	AUB
PPA / play	+0.07 #97	+0.06 #48	UK
Success rate	45% #48	41% #70	AUB

When UK has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	UK off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #118	20.9 #39	AUB
Yards / play	5.02 #117	4.95 #28	AUB
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.06 #50	AUB
Success rate	44% #63	38% #35	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	7.4 #34	6.3 #111	13.7 #80	8.0 #30	6.4 #85	14.4 #51
UK allowed	4.0 #41	6.2 #45	10.2 #41	6.2 #79	6.2 #71	12.3 #76

UK scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	1.5 #133	8.3 #67	9.8 #113	3.8 #112	5.0 #111	8.8 #121
AUB allowed	4.9 #62	3.9 #10	8.7 #21	2.9 #9	9.3 #117	12.1 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.