UTEP @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Tue, Oct 22, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

UTEP

1-6 · Power #128

final

Final

Louisiana Tech

2-4 · Power #112

▲ winner

Closing spread

LT -6.5

✓ UTEP W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 21–28 LT

✓ LT (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -7.5

CloseLT -6.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -7.5

1 → UTEP

CloseLT -6.5

1 pt toward UTEP

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -7.5 · closed LT -6.5 · moved 1 toward UTEPmodel LT -10

model LT -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (106 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (67 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -7.5

CloseLT -6.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 6.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 14–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 7.5; 47.9 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9	38–28	W	O47
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Very close	UTEP vs ODU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	28–21	W	O48.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	17–20	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3
LT WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UUOOO	3-3	50%	1-6
LT OUUOO	3-2	60%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	1-9 10%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
LT	2-8 20%	2-7 22%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTEP 0–1 LT LT leads · 1 game since 2023 · LT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2023	Louisiana Tech 24 @ UTEP 10	LT -2	LT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−11.5 →−18.0▼ 6.5#126

LT−10.2 →−11.6▼ 1.4#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UTEP

Longer bar = better

#121

Offense

Even

#108

#104

Defense

LT better ▶

#30

−0.4 #93

Turnovers

◀ UTEP better

−0.8 #112

65 plays #87

Pace

LT faster ▶

71 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	UTEP off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #127	23.5 #64	LT
Yards / play	5.08 #114	4.83 #17	LT
PPA / play	−0.02 #123	+0.01 #29	LT
Success rate	37% #120	35% #8	LT

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #88	32.6 #117	LT
Yards / play	5.19 #109	6.05 #103	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.16 #100	Even
Success rate	37% #119	44% #97	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	4.9 #91	3.9 #128	8.7 #121	4.9 #91	4.4 #124	9.3 #117
LT allowed	6.3 #94	3.2 #6	9.5 #34	7.0 #99	5.0 #37	12.0 #68

LT scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.8 #93	9.7 #45	14.5 #68	4.5 #97	5.5 #100	10.0 #111
UTEP allowed	7.9 #117	9.6 #104	17.4 #114	9.6 #130	5.1 #43	14.7 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.