Florida International @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Wed, Oct 16, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UTEP · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F15 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Florida International

2-4 · Power #121

final

Final

UTEP

0-6 · Power #128

▲ winner

Closing spread

FIU -6.5

✓ UTEP W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 25–20 UTEP

✗ FIU (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFIU -6

CloseFIU -6.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFIU -6

0.5 → FIU

CloseFIU -6.5

0.5 pts toward Florida International

Total

Open50.5

▼ 3

Close47.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FIU -6 · closed FIU -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward FIUmodel FIU -1.5

model FIU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 57% (77 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFIU -6

CloseFIU -6.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FIU as a 6.5-point road favorite at UTEP, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UTEP won 30–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 5.2; 48.9 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	BUFF @ KENT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	24–6	W	U44
Very close	CMU @ BALL 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	17–24	L	U42
Very close	ODU @ FIU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	47–24	W	O50
Very close	BGSU @ AKR 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-9	31–28	L	O49.5
Very close	CONN @ FIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	33–12	W	U46.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	LT @ FIU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-2	10–17	L	U49
Close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	31–35	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WLLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	0-1
UTEP LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-2	1-3

Venue/role: FIU away, as favorite; UTEP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU OOOUU	3-3	50%	2-4
UTEP UUUOO	2-3	40%	0-6

Went over in Q4. Of 255 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
UTEP	1-9 10%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FIU 0–1 UTEP UTEP leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTEP has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2023	UTEP 27 @ Florida International 14	FIU -3.5	UTEP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−14.7 →−12.2▲ 2.5#116

UTEP−11.5 →−19.1▼ 7.6#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

FIU

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#103

Offense

◀ FIU better

#125

#85

Defense

◀ FIU better

#118

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

◀ FIU better

−0.8 #112

60 plays #127

Pace

UTEP faster ▶

64 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #81	34.5 #122	FIU
Yards / play	5.52 #94	6.24 #116	FIU
PPA / play	−0.04 #125	+0.23 #119	Even
Success rate	38% #111	45% #115	Even

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	UTEP off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #132	28.5 #95	FIU
Yards / play	5.03 #116	5.50 #71	FIU
PPA / play	−0.03 #123	+0.12 #82	FIU
Success rate	36% #127	43% #92	FIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	6.3 #64	8.2 #76	14.5 #67	4.8 #94	7.7 #52	12.5 #85
UTEP allowed	8.0 #119	10.0 #108	18.0 #115	10.0 #132	6.0 #65	16.0 #118

UTEP scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	5.2 #84	2.2 #133	7.3 #130	5.2 #82	3.5 #129	8.7 #121
FIU allowed	5.2 #69	10.0 #108	15.2 #100	8.2 #117	4.0 #23	12.2 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.