Oregon @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Fri, Oct 18, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Oregon

6-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

1-5 · Power #117

final

Closing spread

ORE -29.5

✓ ORE W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 44–15 PUR

✓ ORE (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -28.5

CloseORE -29.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -28.5

1 → ORE

CloseORE -29.5

1 pt toward Oregon

Total

Open58.5

▲ 2

Close60.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -28.5 · closed ORE -29.5 · moved 1 toward OREmodel ORE -27.5

model ORE -27.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (61 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -28.5

CloseORE -29.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 29.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 10, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 35–0; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.5 against an average line of 28.2; 55.9 points a game (usually 56.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ STAN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-27.5	42–33	L	O62
Close	ORE @ COLO 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-31	49–10	W	U62.5
Close	OU @ BYU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	31–24	L	U58.5
Close	MIZ @ MASS 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-27	45–3	W	U53.5
Close	ALA @ USF 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-34.25	17–3	L	U60.75
Close	CIN @ TULN 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-28	31–12	L	U61.5
Close	CIN @ USF 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	45–28	L	O58.5
Loose	UGA @ VAN 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-32.5	37–20	L	O55
Loose	FLA @ USF 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread	-29	42–20	L	O57
Loose	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & rest	-24	38–29	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE L–LLW	1-3	25%	0-1	0-3
PUR LLLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE O–UUO	2-2	50%	6-0
PUR OOUOO	4-2	67%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 40 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 44% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	9-1 90%	4-4 50%	3-4-1 43%
PUR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ORE 3–1 PUR ORE leads · 4 games since 1979 · ORE has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+22.4 →+19.9▼ 2.5#6

PUR+1.0 →−9.3▼ 10.3#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ORE

Longer bar = better

PUR

#25

Offense

◀ ORE better

#78

#37

Defense

◀ ORE better

#127

+0.2 #62

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

−0.8 #115

70 plays #39

Pace

◀ ORE faster

54 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #29	39.0 #131	ORE
Yards / play	6.69 #25	6.80 #129	ORE
PPA / play	+0.24 #34	+0.32 #133	ORE
Success rate	49% #13	46% #116	ORE

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	PUR off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #104	19.3 #29	ORE
Yards / play	6.30 #43	5.03 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	+0.08 #60	Even
Success rate	42% #85	37% #26	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	6.8 #53	13.3 #8	20.2 #20	4.3 #106	10.0 #15	14.3 #54
PUR allowed	7.5 #111	9.8 #107	17.3 #112	8.0 #116	12.5 #131	20.5 #132

PUR scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	1.2 #133	5.0 #118	6.2 #133	6.8 #63	9.7 #20	16.5 #30
ORE allowed	3.3 #30	7.5 #73	10.8 #57	2.8 #14	5.7 #55	8.5 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.