USC @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

USC

3-3 · Power #16

final

Final

Maryland

3-3 · Power #62

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -6.5

✓ MD W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 31–25 MD

✗ USC (69%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -7.5

CloseUSC -6.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -7.5

1 → MD

CloseUSC -6.5

1 pt toward Maryland

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -7.5 · closed USC -6.5 · moved 1 toward MDmodel USC -8

model USC -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 56% (80 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -7.5

CloseUSC -6.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 6.5-point road favorite at MD, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MD won 29–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 55.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.1 against an average line of 6.7; 54.7 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	24–20	L	U54
Very close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	WIS @ PUR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	38–17	W	O54
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	28–14	W	U55
Very close	LSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	49–39	W	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WLWLW	4-2	67%	0-2	2-2
MD L–LLL	1-4	20%	1-3	0-1

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC UOOUO	3-3	50%	3-3
MD O–OOO	5-0	100%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 267 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
MD	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+10.9 →+15.4▲ 4.5#12

MD+6.6 →+4.3▼ 2.3#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

USC

Longer bar = better

#39

Offense

◀ USC better

#63

#73

Defense

Even

#68

0.0 #73

Turnovers

MD better ▶

+1.2 #12

70 plays #37

Pace

MD faster ▶

75 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #53	24.3 #74	USC
Yards / play	6.29 #45	5.60 #77	USC
PPA / play	+0.23 #39	+0.06 #51	Even
Success rate	49% #19	41% #68	USC

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #63	20.8 #41	USC
Yards / play	5.83 #71	5.88 #95	MD
PPA / play	+0.16 #65	+0.05 #48	Even
Success rate	45% #54	44% #107	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USC scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	4.0 #102	9.3 #50	13.3 #83	8.0 #28	9.3 #22	17.3 #24
MD allowed	2.8 #16	7.3 #69	10.2 #46	5.2 #63	9.0 #117	14.2 #102

MD scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	7.5 #35	6.2 #104	13.7 #75	7.8 #35	8.0 #44	15.8 #36
USC allowed	3.3 #32	6.8 #55	10.2 #46	4.5 #45	5.7 #53	10.2 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.