Rutgers @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Fri, Oct 25, 2024, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Rutgers

4-3 · Power #51

final

Final

USC

3-4 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -13.5

✓ USC W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 19–34 USC

✓ USC (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -14.5

CloseUSC -13.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -14.5

1 → RUTG

CloseUSC -13.5

1 pt toward Rutgers

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -14.5 · closed USC -13.5 · moved 1 toward RUTGmodel USC -19.5

model USC -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 45% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (69 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -14.5

CloseUSC -13.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 13.5-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 42–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 55.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 13.8; 49.3 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	30–31	L	O53
Very close	ORE vs WSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.25	38–24	W	O57.75
Very close	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Very close	PSU vs IU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.25	24–0	W	U54
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Very close	BAY vs TTU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	27–24	L	U51.5
Very close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Very close	ARK vs MIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	34–17	W	U63.25
Very close	BSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.75	23–13	L	U48.5
Very close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-1	1-1
USC LWLWL	4-3	57%	3-0	2-3

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG OUUOO	4-3	57%	4-3
USC OOUOO	4-3	57%	3-4

Went over in Q3. Of 274 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
USC	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

RUTG 0–2 USC USC leads · 2 games since 2024 · USC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+2.4 →+1.1▼ 1.3#63

USC+10.9 →+14.8▲ 3.9#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

RUTG

Longer bar = better

USC

#78

Offense

USC better ▶

#40

#89

Defense

USC better ▶

#69

+0.4 #49

Turnovers

◀ RUTG better

+0.1 #64

67 plays #73

Pace

USC faster ▶

70 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #81	22.0 #48	USC
Yards / play	5.73 #79	5.85 #92	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #80	+0.04 #37	USC
Success rate	43% #72	44% #99	RUTG

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #56	22.3 #54	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #47	5.94 #95	USC
PPA / play	+0.21 #38	+0.15 #97	USC
Success rate	48% #19	44% #110	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	5.0 #90	6.1 #107	11.1 #100	6.3 #68	9.1 #24	15.4 #39
USC allowed	2.9 #15	6.9 #59	9.7 #37	4.9 #51	7.0 #82	11.9 #64

USC scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	4.4 #97	10.0 #39	14.4 #69	6.9 #56	9.0 #25	15.9 #35
RUTG allowed	4.4 #55	5.4 #35	9.9 #39	5.0 #55	7.4 #95	12.4 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.