Minnesota @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

6-3 · Power #26

final

Final

Rutgers

4-4 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -6.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 25–19 RUTG

✗ MINN (67%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -6

CloseMINN -6.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -6

0.5 → MINN

CloseMINN -6.5

0.5 pts toward Minnesota

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -6 · closed MINN -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward MINNmodel MINN -4

model MINN -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 57% (95 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -6

CloseMINN -6.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 6.5-point road favorite at RUTG, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 26–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 6.1; 46.8 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IOWA @ MSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	20–32	L	O39.5
Very close	ISU @ BYU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	45–13	W	O41.5
Very close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	6–20	L	U44
Very close	MSU @ IU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	20–15	W	U48.5
Very close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Very close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Very close	MINN @ IU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	35–14	W	O43.25
Very close	SJSU @ FRES 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	10–17	L	U47
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	27–30	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN WWWWW	7-2	78%	3-0	5-0
RUTG WLLLL	3-5	38%	2-3	1-2

Venue/role: MINN away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN OUUOU	4-5	44%	6-3
RUTG UUOOO	5-3	63%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 234 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
RUTG	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−1.4 →+7.8▲ 9.2#32

RUTG+2.4 →+1.1▼ 1.3#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MINN

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#63

Offense

◀ MINN better

#85

#28

Defense

◀ MINN better

#103

+1.3 #6

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

+0.4 #47

62 plays #112

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MINN offense

	MINN off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #74	24.8 #70	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #96	6.22 #114	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #53	+0.19 #108	MINN
Success rate	46% #27	46% #118	MINN

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	RUTG off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #89	16.8 #12	MINN
Yards / play	5.59 #83	4.81 #18	MINN
PPA / play	+0.11 #82	+0.02 #29	MINN
Success rate	43% #84	40% #51	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	4.0 #107	9.9 #39	13.9 #73	5.0 #88	8.7 #28	13.7 #61
RUTG allowed	5.6 #75	6.5 #46	12.1 #67	6.1 #84	6.5 #74	12.6 #74

RUTG scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	4.8 #96	6.5 #110	11.3 #106	6.5 #61	8.0 #45	14.5 #48
MINN allowed	2.3 #11	6.0 #38	8.3 #13	3.7 #20	4.8 #29	8.4 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.