Maryland @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Maryland

4-4 · Power #62

final

Final

Oregon

9-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -24

✓ MD W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 16–40 ORE

✓ ORE (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -25

CloseORE -24

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -25

1 → MD

CloseORE -24

1 pt toward Maryland

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -25 · closed ORE -24 · moved 1 toward MDmodel ORE -24 matches the line

model ORE -24 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23–25 since 2023: won 93%, covered 49% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (96 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -25

CloseORE -24

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 24-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 10, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 39–18; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 57 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19.7 against an average line of 22.2; 56.3 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Very close	CLEM vs WAKE 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-21	17–12	L	U53
Close	MICH vs MSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-22.25	29–7	L	U55
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-22	49–27	P	O51
Close	ORE vs MSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-22.5	31–10	L	U53
Close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & total	-22.5	38–9	W	U54
Close	FSU vs VT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-24	39–17	L	O52.5
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Close	KSU vs BAY 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-20.5	59–25	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD LLLWL	2-5	29%	0-2	1-2
ORE LWWWW	4-3	57%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OOOOO	7-0	100%	4-4
ORE UOUUO	3-4	43%	9-0

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	8-1 89%
ORE	10-0 100%	5-3 63%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+6.6 →+3.9▼ 2.7#52

ORE+22.4 →+21.5▼ 0.9#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

ORE

#71

Offense

ORE better ▶

#13

#82

Defense

ORE better ▶

#28

+0.5 #39

Turnovers

◀ MD better

+0.2 #56

74 plays #8

Pace

◀ MD faster

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	MD off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #66	15.8 #9	ORE
Yards / play	5.86 #67	4.96 #29	ORE
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.06 #47	ORE
Success rate	43% #73	38% #26	ORE

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #22	27.8 #91	ORE
Yards / play	6.84 #13	5.77 #88	ORE
PPA / play	+0.31 #11	+0.10 #69	ORE
Success rate	51% #5	42% #80	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MD scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	5.6 #76	6.8 #102	12.4 #95	6.8 #53	9.5 #15	16.3 #30
ORE allowed	3.3 #25	5.3 #26	8.7 #16	3.3 #15	3.8 #10	7.1 #10

ORE scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	8.4 #24	14.3 #2	22.8 #5	3.2 #123	9.3 #16	12.6 #79
MD allowed	5.6 #77	8.9 #96	14.5 #91	4.8 #43	8.5 #108	13.3 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.