Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 6:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

6-2 · Power #103

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico State

2-6 · Power #130

final

Closing spread

WKU -18

✓ NMSU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 36–19 NMSU

✓ WKU (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -20

CloseWKU -18

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -20

2 → NMSU

CloseWKU -18

2 pts toward New Mexico State

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -20 · closed WKU -18 · moved 2 toward NMSUmodel WKU -16.5

model WKU -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (72 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -20

CloseWKU -18

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as an 18-point road favorite at NMSU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 41–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20 against an average line of 17.5; 54.2 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MTSU @ FIU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-19.5	33–28	L	O54.5
Very close	FAU @ FIU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-15.25	52–7	W	O54.5
Close	BALL @ AKR 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-20	31–25	L	U58
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-17	34–7	W	U47.5
Close	MSST @ VAN 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-20.5	45–6	W	U53
Close	USA @ ULM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	31–41	L	O51
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Close	MTSU @ CONN 2021 · Week 8 · close	-14	44–13	W	O54
Close	FRES @ NEV 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-22.5	41–14	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WWWWL	6-2	75%	3-1	3-1
NMSU LLLWL	2-6	25%	2-2	2-5

Venue/role: WKU away, as favorite; NMSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU UUOUU	3-5	38%	6-2
NMSU UOOOO	4-4	50%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 312 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
NMSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WKU 0–1 NMSU NMSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NMSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	New Mexico State 38 @ Western Kentucky 29	WKU -4.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−5.2 →−3.7▲ 1.5#85

NMSU−7.8 →−23.3▼ 15.5#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WKU

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#53

Offense

◀ WKU better

#124

#65

Defense

◀ WKU better

#111

+0.3 #52

Turnovers

◀ WKU better

−1.5 #136

67 plays #61

Pace

◀ WKU faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #67	36.6 #128	WKU
Yards / play	6.06 #51	6.37 #119	WKU
PPA / play	+0.18 #51	+0.28 #130	WKU
Success rate	45% #44	41% #67	WKU

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	NMSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	19.6 #124	21.4 #38	WKU
Yards / play	4.42 #134	5.71 #83	WKU
PPA / play	−0.02 #123	+0.09 #64	WKU
Success rate	38% #113	42% #73	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	9.1 #17	7.1 #93	16.3 #45	4.5 #102	8.3 #34	12.8 #76
NMSU allowed	6.5 #98	11.8 #123	18.3 #120	7.0 #101	10.6 #129	17.6 #126

NMSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	2.9 #125	4.9 #125	7.8 #131	1.8 #132	9.0 #20	10.8 #107
WKU allowed	4.4 #51	7.0 #54	11.4 #58	5.6 #68	4.4 #19	10.0 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.