New Mexico State @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 7:45 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Texas A&M

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

2-7 · Power #130

final

Final

Texas A&M

7-2 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -38.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 5–44 TA&M

✓ TA&M (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -40

CloseTA&M -38.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -40

1.5 → NMSU

CloseTA&M -38.5

1.5 pts toward New Mexico State

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -40 · closed TA&M -38.5 · moved 1.5 toward NMSUmodel TA&M -42.5

model TA&M -42.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 36.5–40.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 61% (46 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (108 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -40

CloseTA&M -38.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 38.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 38–3; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 41.4 against an average line of 37.4; 57.4 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Close	ARMY vs MASS 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-37	33–17	L	U56
Close	NCST vs CONN 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-38.5	41–10	L	O47.75
Close	ISU vs KU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-34.5	59–7	W	O57
Close	UK vs NMSU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-35.5	56–16	W	O61
Close	CLEM vs CONN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-40.5	44–7	L	O50.5
Close	FLA vs VAN 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-39	42–0	W	U60
Close	LIB vs MASS 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-35.5	62–17	W	O56
Close	PSU vs MASS 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-42	63–0	W	O55
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & season form	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LLWLW	3-6	33%	0-4	3-5
TA&M LWLWL	3-5	38%	2-2	3-5

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OOOOO	5-4	56%	2-7
TA&M UOOOO	6-2	75%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
TA&M	7-3 70%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NMSU 0–2 TA&M TA&M leads · 2 games since 2016 · TA&M has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−7.8 →−22.7▼ 14.9#132

TA&M+13.5 →+13.0▼ 0.5#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NMSU

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#121

Offense

TA&M better ▶

#54

#109

Defense

TA&M better ▶

#37

−1.7 #136

Turnovers

TA&M better ▶

+0.7 #26

66 plays #81

Pace

Even

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	NMSU off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #121	21.2 #35	TA&M
Yards / play	4.62 #133	5.49 #63	TA&M
PPA / play	−0.02 #123	+0.04 #35	TA&M
Success rate	39% #107	36% #14	TA&M

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TA&M offense

	TA&M off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #47	37.1 #129	TA&M
Yards / play	5.99 #57	6.40 #120	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.15 #60	+0.26 #128	TA&M
Success rate	44% #50	41% #59	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.3 #121	4.3 #126	7.7 #130	3.1 #124	8.8 #21	11.9 #90
TA&M allowed	5.3 #72	3.2 #4	8.6 #14	5.8 #70	6.9 #76	12.7 #74

TA&M scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	7.6 #35	10.6 #31	18.1 #29	6.8 #53	6.0 #95	12.8 #76
NMSU allowed	7.3 #112	11.6 #125	18.9 #123	7.0 #101	10.6 #128	17.6 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.