Sam Houston @ Kennesaw State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Kennesaw State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

7-2 · Power #93

▲ winner

Final

Kennesaw State

1-8 · Power #133

final

Closing spread

SHSU -20.5

✓ KENN W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 31–12 KENN

✓ SHSU (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -13

CloseSHSU -20.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSHSU -13

7.5 → SHSU

CloseSHSU -20.5

7.5 pts toward Sam Houston

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SHSU -13 · closed SHSU -20.5 · moved 7.5 toward SHSUmodel SHSU -16.5

model SHSU -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (61 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -13

CloseSHSU -20.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like SHSU as a 20.5-point road favorite at KENN, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SHSU won 23–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 40 points stayed under 43.5, as in 0 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 28.7 against an average line of 19.3; 67.3 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARMY @ MASS 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-20	44–7	W	O45.5
Close	NIU @ KENT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-20.5	37–27	L	O44.75
Loose	JXST @ KENN 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	63–24	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WWLLL	4-4	50%	2-2	2-3
KENN LWWWL	3-5	38%	1-3	3-5

Venue/role: SHSU away, as favorite; KENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OOUUU	3-5	38%	7-2
KENN OUOUO	3-5	38%	1-8

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 56% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%
KENN	1-9 10%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SHSU 1–0 KENN SHSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SHSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Kennesaw State 21 @ Sam Houston 24	SHSU -16.5	KENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−10.8 →−4.9▲ 5.9#92

KENN−17.4 →−22.9▼ 5.5#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

SHSU

Longer bar = better

KENN

#100

Offense

◀ SHSU better

#136

#39

Defense

◀ SHSU better

#111

+0.7 #27

Turnovers

◀ SHSU better

−0.8 #121

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ SHSU faster

63 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #99	32.4 #113	Even
Yards / play	5.23 #112	6.11 #108	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #92	+0.16 #101	Even
Success rate	41% #98	47% #122	SHSU

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	KENN off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.1 #132	20.4 #28	SHSU
Yards / play	4.01 #136	4.96 #32	SHSU
PPA / play	−0.14 #137	+0.01 #24	SHSU
Success rate	30% #137	42% #71	SHSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	5.2 #84	8.4 #68	13.7 #71	7.2 #42	4.0 #129	11.2 #103
KENN allowed	7.0 #108	9.4 #102	16.4 #108	8.1 #115	6.2 #65	14.3 #105

KENN scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	4.3 #100	3.8 #131	8.1 #129	3.4 #122	4.8 #123	8.2 #125
SHSU allowed	5.4 #73	5.2 #22	10.7 #39	5.0 #51	4.8 #25	9.8 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.